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The Growing Threat of Nuclear War in Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

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A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launcher parades through Red Square during the general rehearsal of the Victory Day military parade in central Moscow on May 7, 2022. - Russia will celebrate the 77th anniversary of the 1945 victory over Nazi Germany on May 9. (Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP) (Photo by KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)

As conflicts around the world continue, the threats of nuclear weapon use have dramatically increased. Specifically, concerns about nuclear escalation surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have grown significantly, with more nuclear threats emerging from both sides of the conflict. This situation has led to many cautionary voices warning against further dangerous developments. Speaking about Russian aggression in Ukraine in May, British MP Rishi Sunak said that the world is closer to nuclear escalation than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis. On June 24, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan echoed similar concerns, highlighting the possible expansion of the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential use of nuclear weapons.

Indeed, the actions of various international actors indicate escalating trends. Along with several direct nuclear weapon threats since the start of its invasion, Russia has moved its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus and recently conducted two tactical nuclear war exercises close to the Ukrainian border, one of which was in cooperation with Belarus. Russian officials have stated that these actions were a response to Western countries authorizing Ukraine to strike Russian territory. Additionally, in June, three Russian ships and a nuclear-powered submarine were sent to Cuba to participate in a military exercise.

On the other side, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, referring to growing threats from Russia and China, mentioned that the organization is negotiating to increase the deployment of nuclear weapons. In a further escalatory move, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian nuclear radar systems deep inside the country twice within a month.

Amid ongoing tensions, it is reported that the nine largest nuclear-armed countries increased their spending to modernize their nuclear arsenals and “deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023,” according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Cold War Echoes and Modern Deterrence Strategies

“The question now is, where does all this lead us?” Is Russia going to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and is the world heading toward a nuclear war? Experts have differing opinions, some cautioning about the high risks involved in Russian threats. In contrast, others consider it cheap talk by Russia aimed at deterring Western countries from getting too involved in the war in Ukraine.

In this respect, the history of the Cold War confrontation between the USA and the Soviet Union could be instructive. As Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press write, the nuclear threat has been an effective deterrence strategy by NATO against its conventionally strong adversary, the Soviet Union, throughout the Cold War. During the Berlin Blockade of 1949 and the Berlin Crisis of 1961, as well as President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s “massive retaliation” policy, the US used direct nuclear threats against the Soviet Union to prevent military expansionism and aggression towards European partners. The US, not being capable of standing against the Soviet Union in a conventional war in Europe, issued nuclear threats to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation, which deterred the adversary. In all cases, the US’s attempts at further escalation effectively achieved its goals.

The Persistent Danger of Nuclear Conflict

Currently, the same strategy of escalation to de-escalate is used by Russia, which is weaker in its conventional war capabilities against NATO allies. By signalling that the war could get out of control and spiral into a nuclear conflict, Putin’s regime aims to prevent Western countries from further arming Ukraine. Excessive aid to Ukraine, enabling it to reclaim all occupied territories, or direct NATO involvement in the war would signify a total defeat for Russia and threaten to destabilize both the country and the Putin regime. Such a scenario poses an existential threat to Russian statehood and thus requires an adequate response as per the country’s security doctrine, which allows for the use of nuclear weapons. This perspective is well understood in the West and explains the absence of decisive Western or NATO interference in the war so far. Instead, NATO’s objective is to ensure the war does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine while simultaneously preventing a Russian victory. Alternatively, the aim is to exhaust Russia through a prolonged conflict, thereby diminishing its economic and military power. Thus, Russian nuclear threats in this context do not carry a substantial risk as long as the West and NATO refrain from direct actions that would result in Russia’s complete defeat.

Yet, the danger of nuclear confrontation is not ruled out and looms over the world as never before, considering the current international standoff. Even during the Cold War, when the sides were not in direct military confrontation like today in Ukraine, the world came close to nuclear war on several occasions. On September 26, 1983, the Soviet early warning radar system alarm rang out, alerting incoming nuclear missiles toward the Soviet Union, which would have automatically triggered a retaliatory response. The duty officer at the command centre, Stanislav Petrov, dismissing the alarm as false, did not report the missile attack up the chain of command, thus averting a potential catastrophe. Just two weeks later, NATO’s joint military exercise in Brussels, which tested command and control procedures of nuclear forces, was misinterpreted by Soviet leadership as a covert attack against the country. Large-scale retaliation was prepared, nuclear warheads were placed in their launch sites, and a nuclear briefcase was handed to Soviet leader Andropov. The planned response was halted after it was realized that NATO was conducting a military exercise.

These are just two examples from the Cold War period indicating how dangerously close the world has come to nuclear war because of mistrust among rivals. Now, considering the current hot phase of the war in Ukraine, the unprecedented hostility and distrust between the sides, and the increasing tension, it is hard to believe that in the case of any technical error or misreading, the sides would refrain from deadly miscalculations. Thus, continuous threats and deployment of nuclear weapons amid the protracted war in Ukraine create a highly menacing international environment that could lead one side, fearing an attack, to push the button.

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