Introduction
The intricate geopolitical dance between Serbia, Russia, and the European Union unveils a complex tapestry of historical alliances, economic dependencies, and shifting political landscapes. The nation grapples with divergent paths from Serbia’s historical ties with Russia rooted in shared religious and cultural affinities to its pursuit of EU integration. As Serbia navigates between its allegiance to the EU and historical connections with Russia, the implications for its future are profound. This analysis delves into the historical background, current relations, and potential scenarios, exploring the nuanced dynamics shaping Serbia’s geopolitical choices and their consequences.
Historical Dynamics
Analyzing the complex and paradoxical relations between Russia, Serbia, and the EU requires a historical background check as Serbia is well connected to Russia through its Orthodox religion, historical ties, and symbolic memories. On the other hand, the Serbian government has improved its relations with the European Union since the 1990s by applying for membership in the organization and developing economic relations not only as a whole with the EU but also separately (individually) with the member states.
Serbia-EU relations
The EU-Yugoslavia relations started off bumpy in the early 1990s, with the EU intervening and recognizing emerging states from the former Yugoslavia starting with Slovenia, Croatia, and then Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. After the crisis, the EU pushed forward economic sanctions followed by NATO-led bombing of Serbia in response to the latter’s attack on Kosovo and Metohija in 1999.
A change in the political environment was imminent for post-Milošević-era Serbia within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), and this enabled better relations with the EU after electing a new pro-EU and pro-western coalition in October 2000. However, the EU stressed a major request to the FRY for cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and apprehend the Serbian war criminals. The EU-Western Balkans Summit in Zagreb on November 24, 2000, marked a watershed moment in EU-Serbia ties, with a joint agreement asserting “the European perspective of this region”. This declaration bolstered the Serbian leader’s European hopes. First, Serbia is geographically a European nation; second, it is bordered by EU member states such as Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria; and third, it is of vital geopolitical interest to the EU, as it serves as a link between Eastern and Western Europe, and between Europe and the Balkans as well as the Middle East.
Due to difficult political conditions, Serbia’s EU integration process experienced substantial delays. Serbia finally signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU in late April 2008, paving the way for candidate status in 2012 and the start of EU accession negotiations in 2014. Serbia has drawbacks in the EU accession process due to the EU’s increased negotiating structure and problems in achieving requirements, particularly in the areas of judicial and governmental reforms. The issue of Kosovo’s independence remains a major obstacle, with slow progress in the EU-mediated Belgrade-Pristina talks hindering Serbia’s path to membership.
The Association Agreement, which has been in effect as of September 2013, introduced a free trade area and required Serbia to harmonize its laws with those of the EU. This increased economic integration, receiving €17.5 billion in EU Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) between 2010 and 2020, which accounted for 68% of overall FDI in Serbia. Additionally, Serbian exports to EU member states rose up from €5 billion in 2012 to €14 billion in 2021.
Amid the COVID-19 outbreak, on March 15, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić criticized the EU, accusing it of dishonesty and stating that its members were unwilling to deliver essential medical supplies during the crisis. However, the European Commission announced a €93 million aid package on March 20th, including €15 million for medical equipment and €78 million for economic recovery. It is worth noting that the EU has made major contributions to the Serbian health system over the last 20 years, including €200 million in grants and a €250 million loan while upgrading Serbian hospitals.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions between the EU, the US, and Russia, have led Serbia to reconsider its foreign policy direction. Despite aligning with the EU and NATO in criticizing Russia and declaring solidarity with Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly, Belgrade has abstained from placing sanctions on Russia. MEP Viola von Cramon said that “non-alignment with the whole of Europe on this will put Serbia in self-isolation and that time of sitting on two chairs is over”.
Serbia-Russia relations
The Russo-Serbian memory alliance gained momentum post-2008, especially in the context of Kosovo’s declaration of independence. Russia assumed a pivotal role as a political and mnemonic ally. President Boris Tadić’s 2007 visit to the Liberators’ Cemetery, accompanied by diplomats from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, marked a significant turning point. The intensified commemoration of the Liberation Day of Belgrade in 2007 was influenced by the looming declaration of Kosovo’s independence.
The Roads of Victory initiative, launched in 2019, epitomizes Russia’s memory diplomacy, propagating a heroic vision of Russia’s past abroad. This initiative, organizing tours of Red Army battle sites, aligns with Serbia’s commemorative shift towards emphasizing the struggle against fascism.
Economic considerations have also played a role in shaping Russo-Serbian relations. In 2008, Serbia sold its gas monopoly to Gazprom at a low price on the eve of Kosovo’s independence declaration. Subsequent cooperation agreements, including the South Stream gas pipeline, and discussions about a potential $1 billion loan, further strengthened economic ties.
Serbia’s awareness of Russia’s historical role, particularly during Serbia’s fight for independence from the Ottoman Empire, adds complexity to contemporary relations. Despite historical complexities, geopolitical considerations, shared historical experiences, and economic interdependencies continue to shape Russo-Serbian relations.
In the next section, we will discuss two possible scenarios that we would witness in the future and answer the question: What implications or effects, negatively or positively, will there be for Serbia?
Discussion
Russia is dear, but the EU is dearer
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said that Serbia would be “economically and politically lost without the EU” and that he will try to negotiate with Kosovo in order to reach an agreement preventing future deterioration in case Serbia kept going against the EU and US over the Serbia-Kosovo normalization plan. US ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill said that President Vučić explicitly conveyed that Serbia’s future is in the EU.
When it comes to investment, the EU tops the list with €19.204 billion of the Foreign Direct Investment compared to Russia which has €2.473 billion. The EU also accounted as Serbia’s biggest trade partner, with more than 65% of Serbian exports going to the EU and more than 50% of its imports coming from the EU. Trade in 2022 was worth €36.5 billion, while EU funding grants to Serbia included the Annual Action Plans worth €122.14 million in 2021 and €162.2 million in 2022, the Energy support package for the Western Balkans worth €165 million, €30 million allocated to civil society from 204 till 2020, and the Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans of €30 billion up until 2027. Additionally, the EU put forward loans accounting for €6.3 billion since 1999.
Furthermore, in February 2023, it was announced that Serbia would receive its largest-ever EU grant, worth €600 million to reconstruct the Belgrade-Niš railway by 2029.
Currently, on a political level, pro-European opposition in Serbia is growing, gaining about 50,000 more votes in Belgrade in comparison with previous elections. However, it was noticed through the past decade, there has been a significant decrease in support for the EU accession among Serbian citizens. According to a March 2022 survey, only 46% of Serbs would vote in support of the country’s EU membership in a referendum, while only 21% favored the Union, in comparison to 2003 where more than 70% of Serbs were in favor of joining the EU.
Serbian poll expert Srdjan Bogosavljević said that “In 2015, 14% of respondents said they did not expect Serbia to join the EU ever, as opposed to this April when 43% were of the same opinion.
Social interaction is one of the most important projects to build in every way possible, particularly prior to enlargement, to familiarize cultures and people with one another. To promote awareness about the problem, this should be done through government and non-governmental groups in Serbia as well as in the EU countries. Regular meetings, summits, more experience sharing, smoother communication, and most importantly tangible and faster accession would help bring Serbia more into the EU’s sphere and the Western world.
Despite the Serbian government’s figurative support for the Russian government, there has been increasing recognition that Moscow’s capacity to protect Belgrade’s interests is diminishing. While Beijing may be able to fill some gaps, Serbia is preparing to step up its attempts to strengthen ties with Western powers.
US Senator Chris Murphy said: “The future for Serbia is with the European Union and with the United States. Not with Russia. There’s no future with Russia.”
In the next section, we will discuss the main points and arguments for the strong Russia-Serbia cooperation.
The EU is dear, but Russia is dearer
The strong relations between Russia and Serbia can be understood through historical, cultural, and geopolitical perspectives. These factors contribute to the depth of the alliance, shaping the sentiments of the Serbian government and its people toward Russia.
Firstly, the historical and cultural ties between Russia and Serbia play a pivotal role in fostering a strong relationship. Both nations share a Slavic and Orthodox heritage, creating a sense of kinship and shared identity. The close linguistic connection between Serbian and Russian further strengthens this bond. Throughout history, Russia has been seen as a protector of Slavic nations, and Serbia’s admiration for Russia is deeply rooted in this historical context.
The geopolitical alignment is another crucial factor. Serbia’s geopolitical position in the Balkans places it at the crossroads of various influences, and its historical experiences have led to a nuanced foreign policy. The alignment with Russia is not solely based on current geopolitical considerations but is also influenced by a desire for strategic autonomy. Serbia’s reluctance to fully align with the European Union, as indicated by President Aleksandar Vučić, underscores the complex dynamics at play.
Furthermore, the economic dimension contributes to the strength of the Russia-Serbia relationship. The reliance on Russian energy resources, as seen in the significant role of Gazprom in Serbia’s energy sector, creates economic interdependence. This not only provides Serbia with a stable energy supply but also fosters economic cooperation and investment between the two nations.
Additionally, the recent relocation of Russian businesses and highly qualified individuals to Serbia, particularly in the tech industry, showcases how Serbia has become a preferred destination amid sanctions on Russia. This economic cooperation strengthens the ties between the two nations, demonstrating a mutual interest in each nation’s prosperity.
The alignment with Russia is also driven by public sentiment in Serbia, as reflected in polls and public demonstrations in support of Vladimir Putin. The perception that NATO, rather than Putin, initiated the conflict in Ukraine contributes to the skepticism toward Western narratives. The visible displays of support, such as murals and billboards, underscore the depth of public sentiment favoring Russia.
In the face of calls from the European Union to join sanctions against Russia, Serbia’s resistance can be seen as a defense of its sovereignty. President Vučić’s assertion that such calls amount to “brutal interference” reflects a sentiment that aligning with the EU’s stance on Russia would compromise Serbia’s independent decision-making and national interests.
However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has strained the historically close relationship between Serbia and Russia. President Aleksandar Vučić’s distancing from Moscow’s actions reflects a significant setback in bilateral ties. Vučić’s dismissal of Putin’s territorial claims in Ukraine, his prediction of prolonged conflict, and his statement that Serbia cannot support Russia’s invasion mark a notable shift toward the West.
In terms of trade, while Russia holds a significant position, Serbia’s economic diversification efforts, securing funds from the IMF, the UAE, Azerbaijan, and China indicate a move away from Russian dependence. This divergence highlights the challenges Russia faces in maintaining influence in Serbia.
Conclusion
Serbia’s future lies in the European Union (“the EU is dearer”), as underscored by the overwhelming economic, political, and cultural ties that bind them. The EU’s substantial investments, totalling billions of euros, dwarf Russia’s comparatively modest contributions.
The EU not only serves as Serbia’s largest trade partner, accounting for the majority of both exports and imports, but also extends crucial financial support through grants and projects. The recent announcement of a €600 million grant for the Belgrade-Niš railway exemplifies the EU’s commitment to Serbia’s infrastructural development.
Moreover, the historical and cultural ties between Serbia and the EU cannot be overlooked. The pro-European sentiment is growing within Serbia, with an increasing pro-European opposition, reflecting a societal shift towards European values. The EU’s emphasis on social interaction, cultural exchange, and faster accession fosters a sense of unity and understanding.
Geopolitically, aligning with the EU provides Serbia with strategic autonomy without compromising its sovereignty. The EU’s influence in the Western Balkans ensures regional stability and collaboration, creating a favorable environment for Serbia’s growth.
In contrast, the recent political divergence from Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine indicates the challenges and limitations of maintaining a strong alliance with Moscow.
The path of Serbia’s ties with the EU demonstrates its commitment to European integration. Despite historical ties with Russia and others, Serbia actively pursues greater alignment with the European Union, as seen by the start of accession negotiations in 2014. The crucial Stabilization and Association Agreement promoted economic unification and significant international investment.
Despite ongoing challenges, particularly in high-level politics and relations with Kosovo, Serbia’s foreign policy should be shaped by its strategic emphasis on EU accession. Serbia’s progress in the accession process, being a front-runner, highlights the EU as a vital partner. The EU’s crucial role in influencing the geopolitical environment of the Western Balkans stands vital. The ongoing negotiations for accession represent Serbia and the EU’s joint dedication to creating a future distinguished by improved collaboration, increased stability, and mutual advantages.