fbpx

Masoud Pezeshkian, an Azerbaijani: Iranian Regime’s Strategic Choice

6 Min Read

In the politically charged environment of Iran, dominated by totalitarian and hardline forces, the recent election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president signifies notable political changes. This shift, significant because Pezeshkian is an Azerbaijani and a reformist, indicates that the Iranian regime is making strategic calculations amidst internal discontent and external pressures.

Background

Born in 1954 in Mahabad, West Azerbaijan province, Masoud Pezeshkian is a figure shaped by the complexities of Iran’s ethnic mosaic. His Azerbaijani heritage, knowledge of Kurdish, and military service in the Baluchistan region have deeply influenced his political ethics. As an experienced politician, Pezeshkian has held significant positions, including Minister of Health and Medical Education during President Mohammad Khatami’s reformist government. He has also served as a long-term member of parliament elected from Tabriz.

Election Results and Potential Ethnic Tensions

Pezeshkian won 16,384,403 votes, defeating ultra-conservative Saeed Jalili, who garnered 13,538,179 votes, with a 49.8% voter turnout, marking a substantial increase from the record-low 39% turnout in the first round. In the first round, Pezeshkian defeated three conservative opponents, securing the top position, with over 1 million invalid votes cast.

In the intense second round, Pezeshkian received 16,384,403 votes, equating to 54.76% of the total, while Jalili obtained 13,538,179 votes or 45.24%. These results are more than just simple numbers. One of the key factors in the election was the votes from East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, and Zanjan provinces, where Azerbaijani Turks reside. Without the votes from these provinces, Pezeshkian would have received 12,745,989 votes, while Jalili would have secured 12,760,112 votes, winning the election. This analysis shows that Pezeshkian’s victory was primarily due to the support from Azerbaijani voters, indicating a new shift in Iran’s electoral politics.

 

Interestingly, reformist provinces like Yazd and other central regions, despite Pezeshkian being a reformist candidate, did not support him this time and voted for Jalili. This is one of the intriguing and significant aspects of the election. One reason for this could be Pezeshkian’s Azerbaijani identity. His defence of the rights of non-Persian groups might have led some Persian areas to oppose him. The populations in these areas, favouring the centralization of wealth and its continuation for their benefit, chose to preserve their social and economic advantages rather than support Pezeshkian’s reformist and inclusive policies. This situation suggests that ethnic-national factors, rather than the reformist-conservative dichotomy, are now influencing election outcomes.

Strategic Considerations by the Regime

While ethnic votes played a significant role in the elections, the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recognized that these elections were part of a broader strategy. In recent years, Iran has faced various internal and external challenges, including the 2022 protests, the potential threat of war with Israel, economic difficulties, and uprisings threatening national stability. Under these circumstances, there was a likelihood that voter participation could drop below even 40%, posing serious problems for the regime.

Pezeshkian’s campaign slogan, “Iran is for Iranians,” reminiscent of Mohammad Khatami’s former slogan, resonated with a nation facing the risk of fragmentation. Khamenei wanted to ensure that internal divisions would not create problems in the near future. In this regard, Pezeshkian was an ideal choice, as his reformist stance and advocacy for the rights of various ethnic groups could help gain the trust of different factions within the country. Throughout his campaign, he repeatedly emphasized his commitment to “national unity.”

Pezeshkian’s Policy Platform

Pezeshkian’s election platform focused primarily on domestic issues, such as minority rights and the relaxation of women’s dress codes. However, he also proposed establishing relations with the West to ease sanctions, a stance that contrasted with Jalili’s isolationist message. Pezeshkian was the only moderate candidate permitted by the Guardian Council to participate in these elections.

In terms of foreign policy, Iran’s previous presidents and the regime’s stance during the Second Karabakh War, as well as poor relations with neighbouring countries, had caused significant geopolitical setbacks for Iran. After the war, Iran, having lost geopolitical advantages in the South Caucasus, understood the consequences deeply. This time, Khamenei sought an opportunity to mend these relations and develop better strategies, for which Pezeshkian, interested in fostering close ties with neighbouring countries, was one of the most suitable candidates.

By endorsing Pezeshkian’s candidacy, the Guardian Council took a strategic step to increase voter participation and reduce growing discontent. It seems this move was crucial for ensuring stability for the regime, achieving more successful foreign policy in the short term, and eliminating internal divisions within the nation.

Share This Article