Introduction: Ten Months into the Gaza Conflict
It has now been ten months since the brutal Israeli attack on Gaza began. The conflict was triggered by a horrific cross-border incursion by Hamas from the Gaza Strip into Israeli communities, resulting in the deaths of 1,139 people and the abduction of 250 hostages. In retaliation, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a war against Hamas, leading to tremendous human suffering and extensive destruction in Gaza. The war has claimed the lives of 39,000 people and left millions facing starvation and displacement. This has sparked growing international criticism of Israel and raised questions about its objectives in continuing the conflict. Now, the increasing ambitions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have brought Israel closer to a direct confrontation with Iran, raising the risk of a full-scale Middle Eastern war. Despite rising calls from major powers to avoid the worst-case scenario, efforts to de-escalate the situation or achieve a ceasefire have been ineffective. Given the current state of the conflict and its consequences for Israel, one must ask: does this war truly lead to victory?
Reactions to the Gaza Conflict: Impact on Israel’s Global Image
IDF operations in Gaza have sparked negative international reactions and strong criticism, significantly damaging Israel’s global standing. Throughout the war, international media have extensively covered the devastation, killings, and dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, which has shocked the world. IDF attacks have destroyed nearly 35 per cent of housing in Gaza, resulting in the displacement of almost the entire population and the deaths of 39,000 people, including 15,000 children. According to a UN-backed monitoring agency, 22 per cent of the Gaza population now faces catastrophic food insecurity. Additionally, two UN agencies report that heavy restrictions on humanitarian access and the collapse of the local food system mean that 1 million people could face famine.
These ongoing Israeli actions have led to grave accusations. The UN Commission of Inquiry has accused Israel along with Hamas of war crimes against humanity, citing intentional starvation, civilian killings, torture, inhumane treatment, and mass killings by the IDF. The harrowing images and statistics of these casualties and the humanitarian disaster have deeply affected millions worldwide, generating empathy for the Palestinian people and their cause while bringing disgrace to the Israeli government for the suffering inflicted on Palestinians. Recent surveys reflect this shift: positive views of Israel have decreased by 20 per cent in 43 countries, with negative views rising significantly. Even Israel’s closest ally, the United States, has expressed concern, with the Biden Administration warning that the war in Gaza is causing generational damage to Israel’s reputation.
As Israel’s actions have become increasingly indefensible, support for the Palestinian state has grown throughout the war. Consequently, Armenia, Spain, Norway, and Ireland have officially recognized the Palestinian state, with others considering doing the same. On May 10, 143 countries demonstrated overwhelming support for Palestine as the UN passed a resolution in favour of Palestinian membership in the organization.
The Price of Partial Success: Israel’s Strategic Setbacks with Hamas
But what did Israel actually achieve throughout the war in Gaza? From the outset of the operations, Netanyahu declared that Israel aimed for a total victory over Hamas, specifically targeting the destruction of its military and governing capabilities. According to official reports, the IDF has killed 17,000 fighters. Yet, despite 10 months of intense conflict that have significantly weakened Hamas, the organization remains active, albeit in a diminished form.
In fact, contrary to Netanyahu’s declarations, many experts warned from the beginning that it is impossible to completely eradicate Hamas. This is partly because Hamas is not just a military organization; it represents an idea deeply rooted in the minds of many, and unless the entire population is eliminated, the idea will persist. Additionally, Hamas’s strength lies in an extensive network of tunnels, spanning hundreds of kilometres and built over decades, from which they continue to fight—making it difficult for the IDF to reach them despite their military capabilities.
As of now, Hamas is not only undefeated but support for the organization—the only entity in the world fighting for Palestinian rights—has grown among Palestinians. The latest conflict has predictably renewed hostility among new generations of Palestinians, radicalizing them and justifying Hamas’s methods of struggle. Furthermore, the appointment of Yahya Sinwar as the new leader of Hamas, following the killing of the relatively moderate Ismail Haniyeh, has hardened the organization’s position. Sinwar, considered one of the masterminds behind the October 7 attack, is consolidating the organization by uniting its political and military wings. Under his leadership, Hamas has already declared that it will not lay down its arms. Therefore, rather than leading to the dismantling of Hamas, the end of the war will likely see the organization attract more recruits to its ranks. Many more people, fueled by hostility and a desire for revenge, will view armed struggle as the primary means to resist Israeli oppression, further diminishing hopes for peaceful coexistence.
The Domestic Impact: Economic Decline and Military Challenges
On the domestic front, war is becoming increasingly costly, not only due to the millions of dollars spent daily on ammunition but also because of its broader impact on the economy and military. The economy has already contracted by nearly 20 per cent within the first three months of the conflict, disrupting key sectors such as trade, tourism, and business. Forty-six thousand businesses have already closed, with many more expected to follow as the war drags on. Additionally, investment has plummeted, prices have skyrocketed, and government spending has surged, particularly on compensations for businesses, evacuations of thousands of people from border regions, and other war-related expenses. The detrimental impact of the war is underscored by downgrades in Israel’s credit ratings by three global agencies.
The prolonged war, with unclear goals, is also straining the military and creating a rift between the Defense Ministry and the Netanyahu government. Specifically, the Defense Ministry does not see Netanyahu’s goal of total victory over Hamas as viable and is advocating for a cessation of hostilities and negotiations to bring hostages home. This push to end the war is also linked to increasing manpower shortages in the IDF. To address this problem, the government prepared a bill raising the retirement age for IDF reservists—from 40 to 41 for soldiers and from 45 to 46 for officers—and extending mandatory service for men from 32 to 36 months for the next ten years. However, this proposal is opposed by the Ministry of Economy, as it would reduce the workforce. The dispute is further complicated by the exemption of conservative Haredi community members from military service, which places an unequal burden on others. The situation surrounding the military is particularly concerning given the potential confrontation with Iran’s axis of resistance, especially the strong Hezbollah.
Conclusion
Nearly a year has passed since the conflict in Gaza began. Though Israel has achieved considerable success in weakening Hamas, the conflict has come at a very high cost. The war has caused immense human suffering, killing, and devastation in Gaza, drawing international criticism and accusations of war crimes and genocide against Israel. This has eroded Israel’s moral authority on the global stage and increased support for a Palestinian state, which Israel categorically opposes. Additionally, while Hamas has not been fully eradicated, the prolonged conflict has renewed hostility among Palestinians, further alienating them and encouraging a new generation to embrace terror as a viable means of resisting Israeli government oppression. The conflict has completely shattered Israel’s rapprochement with Arab countries, undermining efforts crucial for regional stability and trade relations. Domestically, the economic recession related to the war is deepening, with businesses closing, investments declining, and government expenditures rising. The protracted conflict is also stretching the Israeli military, potentially weakening it in the face of a possible attack from Iran and its allies. Thus, given the outcomes of the conflict so far, the question arises: is this a war in which Israel can truly achieve victory?