The Emergence of a New Power Axis Between Russia, China, and Iran
The Russia-Ukraine war continues to reshape global politics and create new power dynamics worldwide. This confrontation of major powers—sometimes described as the early stages of World War 3—has begun to dismantle old alliances and forge new ones. A significant development emerging from the conflict is the strengthening alliance between powerful regional actors: China, Russia, and Iran. Although the ties between these countries were established long before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia and its resulting international isolation have intensified Moscow’s need for closer ties with China and Iran for support.
The risk of a Russian defeat—which would further consolidate U.S. global dominance and weaken the positions of both Iran and China—has driven these nations to aid Russia in its conflict with the collective West. These strategic calculations have led to more coordinated actions, including a renewed political, military, and economic partnership among these three authoritarian powers. This collaboration is increasingly focused on strengthening each other’s military and deterrence capabilities, raising the prospect of a strong regional pact in the face of growing confrontation with their common rival. The formation of such an axis poses significant risks to regional stability and global peace. But how does this alliance function, and how real is it?
A New Era – China Russia
When Russia’s military campaign faltered in Ukraine, international attention turned to China as a potential supplier of weapons that could bolster Russia’s military capacity. However, despite Beijing’s interest in a Russian victory, China refrained from providing overt military assistance due to the fear of U.S. sanctions. Nevertheless, the two countries found alternative ways to strengthen Russia’s war machine, allowing Moscow to sustain its military operations.
China supplied Russia with critical components such as dual-use semiconductors, ball bearings, machine tools, and drone parts—essential for Russia’s military industry to continue producing munitions, armoured vehicles, missiles, drones, tanks, and aircraft. Notably, China accounts for 70% of Russia’s machine tool imports and 90% of its microelectronics. Additionally, reports indicated that Chinese companies exported assault rifles, drones, and armoured vehicles and that there was joint production of drones by Chinese and Russian firms.
Before the war in Ukraine, Russia was China’s second-largest arms supplier, with Russian technology playing a crucial role in the development and modernization of China’s military, particularly its navy and air force. China primarily imported aircraft, air defence systems, engines, and missiles from Russia. Over the years, Chinese companies have successfully copied and reverse-engineered these systems, leading to the creation of their own versions of fighter jets, missiles, and missile systems. China continues to rely on advanced Russian weapon systems, especially in the aviation sector, as demonstrated by the import of Russian helicopters and aircraft engines from 2018 to 2022. Now, as Russia becomes increasingly dependent on Chinese exports, it is expected that Moscow will feel compelled to share more of its advanced military technology with Beijing, further boosting China’s military capabilities.
Changing circumstances have also led to increased economic cooperation, giving Russia a lifeline while boosting China’s economic power. Trade turnover between the two nations has surged since 2022, reaching an all-time high of $240 billion in 2023. Chinese exports to Russia have risen by 47 per cent, making up 38 per cent of all Russian imports. Exports of cars, trucks, tractors, and smartphones from China have soared, increasing by 70 per cent. Imports from Russia have increased by 13 per cent, accounting for 31 per cent of Russian exports. More importantly, China has replaced the EU as Russia’s main oil market, with half of Russia’s oil exports now going to China, albeit at a lower price. Additionally, the use of the Chinese yuan in bilateral trade has grown significantly, with yuan usage in Russia’s foreign exchange trade now reaching nearly 100 per cent. The two sides have also increased the use of local transactions through the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) and China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Overall, economic and military cooperation with China has helped Russia sustain its war efforts and avoid political and economic catastrophe. On the other hand, it has boosted China’s cheap oil imports, increased its share in the Russian market through higher exports, and further enhanced the usage of the yuan.
Iran-Russia
The Ukraine war has also deepened Russia-Iran relations, transforming them from a patron-client dynamic—where Russia primarily provided Iran with weapons—into a full-fledged defence partnership. Over the course of the war, Iran has supplied Russia with a substantial array of weaponry, including Shahed-136, Shahed-131, and Mohajer-6 drones, artillery shells, millions of rounds of ammunition, several hundred Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missiles, mortar shells, and glide bombs. Additionally, the two countries have established a joint drone manufacturing facility in Russia.
In return, Iran has secured Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 jets and trainers from Russia. Beyond expanding cooperation in traditional sectors such as space, intelligence, cyber, and technology, Russia is also transferring Western weapons captured during the Ukraine war to Iran. Tehran is also seeking advanced military technology from Moscow to enhance its air defence, including Iskander missiles and the S-400 missile system. Additionally, Iran is exploring potential cooperation with Russia on its nuclear programs. As Tehran continues to play a crucial role in supporting Russian war efforts, this deepening cooperation is likely to result in the transfer of more advanced weapons from Moscow, further bolstering Iran’s deterrence capabilities against its major rivals, the US and Israel.
Along with their military partnership, the two sides have also intensified efforts to increase economic cooperation. Despite challenges in bilateral business due to sanctions and the similarity of their export structures, trade between the two nations rose by 20 per cent last year. Russia has become the largest investor in Iran, while Iran’s exports to Russia grew by 15.8 per cent. Moscow and Tehran are negotiating various schemes to overcome trade and transaction challenges stemming from sanctions, such as de-dollarization and the use of local currencies. Consequently, the use of the ruble and rial in bilateral trade has already increased by 60 per cent. The sides have also agreed to link their banking systems to ease trade transactions, leading to the introduction of Russian credit card services in Iran. Iran and Russia are also working to intensify cooperation within economic blocs and through transit corridors. Economic blocs that Iran has joined in the last two years—such as the free trade zone with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and BRICS—provide platforms for further military and economic cooperation not only with Russia but also with China and other member states of these organizations. Additionally, Tehran and Moscow are collaborating to complete the construction of a crucial segment of the Rasht-Astara railway, part of the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which will enhance transportation between them and across the wider region.
Iran – China
Despite commitments and official agreements, China-Iran relations have been strained due to Beijing’s reluctance to break sanctions and the political-economic instability within Iran, which hampers Chinese investments and further deepening of cooperation. Military cooperation between the two countries has gradually decreased since the 2000s, with the transfer of weapons halting entirely after 2015 due to UN resolutions and US sanctions over Iran’s nuclear development program. Since then, aside from Iran’s full access to China’s indigenous satellite navigation system, Beidou, military cooperation has been limited to bilateral and multilateral drills and official visits, despite the 2021 strategic partnership agreement that also envisioned a military cooperation. However, the true scale of cooperation between the two may also be kept secret, as recent media reports suggest covert Chinese exports of drone parts to Iran and ongoing negotiations regarding technology and materials for rocket and ballistic missile fuel.
Contrary to the challenges in the military sector, economic cooperation between Iran and China has persisted despite the hurdles posed by sanctions. Oil exports, which provide Iran with a crucial financial lifeline and secure China’s access to the natural resources its industry requires, have continued uninterrupted. Last year, China’s import of Iranian oil surged to 1.5 million barrels per day. China now purchases 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, paying in yuan, which Iran is then required to use for importing Chinese goods. In 2023, exports from China to Iran—including vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts, machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, and electronic equipment—increased from $8.5 billion to $10 billion. Despite the difficulties, cooperation between Beijing and Tehran has seen a recent uptick. Iran’s eventual membership in organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and BRICS, coupled with China granting membership to Tehran in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), holds the potential to undermine U.S. efforts to isolate Iran and foster increased military and economic cooperation with China and other major powers within these organizations.
Conclusion
The renewed alignment between Russia, China, and Iran that emerged from the Russia-Ukraine war continues to grow stronger, with increased military, economic, and political cooperation despite sanctions and other challenges. This partnership has been crucial in sustaining Russia’s war effort in Ukraine while simultaneously bolstering the defence capabilities and economic stability of the other Axis members. China’s exports of critical electronics have helped Moscow maintain its military production and operations, while Beijing benefits from cheap imports of Russian oil to fuel its industrial growth. Increased trade in the Chinese yuan not only aids Russia but also elevates the international standing of China’s currency.
Iran has played a pivotal role by supplying Russia with essential weapons, receiving advanced defence technology and economic investments in return. Additionally, China’s purchase of 90% of Iran’s oil provides Tehran with an economic lifeline, helping it stave off financial collapse. This growing alliance enhances the resilience of all three countries in their confrontation with their common rival, the U.S., as they continue to defy pressure in the form of sanctions and isolation. As tensions escalate between the U.S. and its authoritarian adversaries, it is expected that the partnership among these Axis members will deepen, potentially evolving into a formidable alliance that could threaten both regional stability and global peace.