On the 14th of December 2023, the European Union granted Georgia candidate status. The news was met with jubilation across Georgia as tens of thousands of Georgians gathered in the country’s capital to celebrate this significant milestone on the country’s path to Europe. In a great reversal, less than a year later, on 28th November 2024, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that Georgia’s EU accession negotiations had been suspended until the end of 2028. In this article, we dive deep into what caused the strained relations between Georgia and the EU and what the future holds for Georgia and its EU aspirations.
The “Foreign Agents Bill” and Its Impact on EU Accession Talks
A key factor contributing to the suspension of accession negotiations was the passage of the controversial “foreign agents bill,” which was modelled after a similar legislation in Russia. This bill was introduced in March 2023 but was withdrawn by the government after massive protests broke out. It was reintroduced in April 2024 and finally passed into law in June of the same year. The bill requires NGOs and media organisations receiving more than 20% of their funding from foreign sources to register as “organisations carrying out the interests of a foreign power.” This was widely seen as a move (both internationally and domestically) to suppress independent media and civil society, which are not only essential pillars of democracy but are also a key requirement for EU membership.
The European Commission condemned the legislation as a blatant violation of civil freedoms and labelled it as a step away from European values. Furthermore, the EU considered this to be a clear breach of the terms governing Georgia’s European path. In response, the EU froze financial aid and made it clear that the current government was no longer able to support Georgia’s path to membership. Both U.S. officials and EU members who had long supported Georgia’s European course strongly condemned the action. Numerous political analysts warned that Georgia was moving towards authoritarianism, just like the other post-Soviet nations that had bolstered their connections with Russia at the expense of democracy.
There was also a significant domestic backlash due to the measure. Thousands of protestors marched through the streets of Tbilisi. The protesters carried European flags and called on the government to repeal the law. However, the government didn’t budge, asserting that the legislation was essential to curb foreign influence. In response, the government used brutal force to disperse the demonstrators in a move that was met with heavy criticism for being violent, including arrests and reports of police brutality. This development further strained the relationship between the ruling party and Georgia’s civil society. The events showed the country’s internal struggle between those who favour EU integration and those who see Western influence as a threat to Georgia’s sovereignty.
The 2024 Parliamentary Elections and Protests
The October 2024 parliamentary elections further deepened Georgia’s political crisis. According to the International observers, there were widespread irregularities, including voter intimidation, media censorship, and reports of violence at polling stations. The ruling Georgian Dream party decisively secured another term in government amid allegations of election fraud, which triggered mass protests in the country’s capital and other major cities.
Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets, demanding that the elections be annulled and asking the government to commit to democratic reforms. The government responded with heavy-handed crackdowns, leading to mass arrests and further alienating Georgia from its Western allies. The protests highlighted a growing divide between the government and a pro-European segment of Georgian society, which remains committed to the country’s EU aspirations.
The demonstrations lasted for weeks, with opposition leaders calling for a nationwide strike. Some observers compared the unrest to Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution, which had ousted an authoritarian regime and set the country on its initial path toward democratic reforms. However, this time the authorities (the Georgian Dream government) proved more resistant to external pressure than their predecessors. The ruling party dismissed allegations of electoral fraud as “Western propaganda,” further solidifying its anti-EU rhetoric.
Georgian Dream: From Pro-European to Hard Euroscepticism
The Georgian Dream party, originally a very pro-European political force, has dramatically embraced a more Eurosceptic stance. Since coming to power in 2012, the party initially pursued closer ties with the West while maintaining a pragmatic relationship with Russia. However, under the leadership of Bidzina Ivanishvili, the party has steadily distanced itself from Western institutions and has tried to portray the EU as an entity that seeks to meddle in Georgian affairs.
The shift became particularly evident in 2023-2024, as the government framed EU demands for democratic reforms as “foreign interference”. In doing so, the government aligned itself more closely with conservative and nationalist narratives. Georgian Dream officials accused Brussels of imposing “cultural imperialism” because they saw the demands by the EU related to human rights and civil liberties as foreign influence, particularly regarding media freedom and LGBTQ+ rights, the latter seen by the party as running against the country’s traditional values. This ideological pivot has significantly altered Georgia’s geopolitical orientation.
In its early years after its formation, Georgian Dream had presented itself as the alternative to the pro-Russian policies of the previous government. It initially implemented policies aligned with EU requirements, including judicial and economic reforms, to secure closer ties with the West. However, over time, the party became increasingly wary of Western influence, particularly as the EU pressured the government to curb corruption and strengthen democratic institutions.
Analysts believe that the turning point came in 2021 when the EU tried to intervene and mediate a political crisis in Georgia that arose after a contested election. Georgian Dream leaders saw this intervention as an infringement on national sovereignty, leading to growing resentment toward Brussels. This resentment only intensified as the EU continued to push for political reforms in exchange for further integration, which then culminated in the complete rejection of EU recommendations in 2024.
To sum up, Numerous factors led to Georgia’s turn away from the EU
Various political, economic, and geopolitical factors led to Georgia’s arguably dramatic shift away from the EU. Georgia shares its longest border with Russia in the north. Russia is unsurprisingly opposed to Georgia’s EU and NATO memberships. The ruling Georgian Dream party has increasingly sought closer ties with Russia. This is even though Georgia became the first country in 2008 since the breakup of the Soviet Union to be invaded by Russia, and 20% of Georgia’s internationally recognised territory is still under Russian occupation. The cosiness of Georgia’s government towards Russia has not only caused unease in the European Union but has also jeopardised Georgia’s path to the EU.
The introduction of the foreign influence law further exacerbated tensions between the government and the European Union. This was not only seen as an act of hostility towards the European Union but also undermined the democratic reforms that the EU demanded for the country’s future membership. These demands for democratic reforms were always met with a lot of scepticism by the government. As the EU pursued judicial independence, press freedom, and election transparency among other things, the ruling party saw this as an interference in domestic policies.
The founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party and the current honorary chairman, who is also often referred to as the de facto ruler of the country, is the billionaire oligarch “Bidzina Ivanishvili.” Numerous political analysts believe that his deep ties with Russia and his personal interests play a very important part in the decision-making processes of the country.
The hard Eurosceptic attitude and Russophilia demonstrated by the government are not shared by most Georgians. Despite the government’s efforts to provoke anti-EU sentiments, the EU remains the most trusted foreign institution in the country, with an overwhelming 81% of Georgian citizens maintaining their trust in the institution. The generational divide in attitudes towards Russia and the EU is also apparent. The more socially liberal, pro-Western younger generation has spearheaded the protests against the government, while the older, more socially conservative generation still holds some fond memories of Russia. The government is aware of this divide and has left no stone unturned in trying to appease the older generation in a bid to garner more votes and support. This cultural divide between the older and younger generations has only fanned the flames of polarization and the difference is even visible online with Facebook (used more often by the older generation) being filled with pro-government comments and posts while platforms used more often by the younger generation such as TikTok and Instagram have been a central part of the anti-government engagements.
What Lies Ahead? Mikheil Kavelashvili’s Presidency and Closer Ties with Russia
The election of Mikheil Kavelashvili as Georgia’s new president in late 2024 signals a further shift away from the EU. Kavelashvili, a close ally of Ivanishvili and a former Georgian Dream MP, ran on a platform emphasising sovereignty, “traditional values,” and a rejection of EU-imposed reforms. His presidency is expected to accelerate Georgia’s alignment with Russia, particularly in economic and security matters.
Already, Georgia has resumed discussions on joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a Moscow-led initiative that serves as an alternative to EU economic integration. Additionally, new trade and security agreements with Russia are in the works, which signal a potential end to Georgia’s post-Soviet Western trajectory.
Despite the government’s best efforts to change public opinion, Georgians remain largely pro-European. Civil societies and opposition parties in Georgia have been pushing for European integration, but their efforts have mostly been in vain, and that is due to the ruling party’s increasingly authoritarian behaviour. What remains to be seen is whether Georgia’s pivot towards Russia is a temporary detour or has the country permanently abandoned its European aspirations.
The consequences of this geopolitical shift will be felt beyond Georgia’s borders. Western nations are already reconsidering their diplomatic engagement with Tbilisi, and even the United States has suspended certain aid programs in response to the new government’s policies. Meanwhile, unsurprisingly, Russia has welcomed the change in direction and has offered economic incentives and security assurances in exchange for closer cooperation. Some analysts fear that Georgia could become another Belarus, a state firmly within Moscow’s orbit and largely cut off from Western institutions.
Conclusion
Georgia’s dramatic shift from EU candidate status to a suspended accession process reflects deep-seated political and ideological changes within the ruling party. The passage of restrictive laws, flawed elections, and a turn towards authoritarian governance have strained relations with the EU, leading to the freezing of negotiations. With a new, more pro-Russian president in office and a ruling party determined to resist Western influence, Georgia’s path forward is uncertain. However, the resilience of its pro-European civil society and the presence of a very enthusiastic and Western-oriented younger generation suggest that the battle for Georgia’s future is far from over.
Ultimately, Georgia stands at a crossroads. The coming years will determine whether the country remains on its current trajectory toward Russian influence or if political upheaval and public pressure force a return to the European path. One thing is clear: Georgia’s geopolitical identity remains one of the most hotly contested issues in its modern history.