In the height of all the challenges that are facing the European continent, ranging from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation, and its effect on the standard of life, and illegal immigration, more far-right, nationalist parties are gaining popularity in polls. These nationalist movements have common concepts and subjects in their campaigns, frequently emphasizing topics that resonate with the public and cause an increase in popularity, targeting the ruling parties’ policies and stances.
Those political forces present themselves as conservatives, working on the people’s needs and tackling prominent hot topics that are surfacing in the European Union. The populist, nationalist players are arguing LGBTQ rights, assistance to Ukraine, the economic situation, inflation, the effect of the green policies, and most importantly the migration-refugee crisis against the EU institutions. So, how are these political parties working? What policies are they targeting? And how are they managing to gather more and more support from the public?
As it is seen, the far-right will gain more popularity and decision-making power after the upcoming EU elections in June of this year, which will change the bloc’s current trajectory. More immigration policies will be pushed, defense strategies will be argued, the relationship with Russia will be brought up, and the weakening of the green policies set by the European Green Deal.
This article seeks to understand the mechanisms of this rise by investigating the specific policies, events, and anti-EU rhetoric used by these political parties. By diving into the core causes and possible consequences for EU unity, the analysis will shed light on the continent’s complex web of challenges and obstacles. Furthermore, it will look at the responses of EU institutions and consider the broader impact on foreign relations, impacting the debate about the future trajectory of European politics.
Rise of Populist Nationalism
Nationalism and Euroscepticism haven’t only been rising in smaller, central European countries, it are seen on a continental level. Most if not all EU states are witnessing the rise of far-right, populist regimes, and in some, they hold the majority and have a grip over the political stride of the country. Giorgia Meloni’s big win over Italy in 2022 set the stage for more uprisings of populist nationalist parties and governments, but unlike Meloni’s Italy which targeted mainly immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, and abortion, others are taking a very extreme Eurosceptic stance rather than just focusing on particular files. We can see that happening in Hungary under Viktor Orbán, lately in Slovakia with the win of the SMER party with Fico leading the country, and previously in Poland for a long 8-year term of the conservative populist PiS party. All other EU countries have significant and rising nationalist populist regimes, who act upon attacking the EU institutions and policies in return for popular support. Some examples are France’s Marine Le Pen leading the National Rally far-right party, Germany’s rising Alternative for Germany AfD Eurosceptic extremist party, Austria’s Freedom Party of Austria, Vox party in Spain, and the Party for Freedom who won The Netherlands’ last election putting its leader Geert Wilders in a position of power who is currently working on forming a coalition government.
Populist uprisings tend to stem from a combination of economic dissatisfaction and social-ethnic fears, with events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2015 migrant crisis serving as catalysts. In the early 2020s, rising inflation, higher living costs, the end of quantitative easing, more taxes, and escalating immigration concerns all contribute to factors that may fuel the emergence of populist sentiment in Europe.
If we dissect the far-right populist campaigns, we can come to the conclusion that most if not all of these European parties share very similar slogans and maneuvers.
Populism in Hungary
Hungary’s Orbán has been a pillar of the populist movement since he took office in 2010 as the head of the Fidesz Party. Both structural and ideological elements contribute to Orbán’s persistent election success in Hungary, which has included consecutive two-thirds majority victories. Orbán has established a political and economic elite in Hungary, making it harder to capitalize on anti-elite feelings. To get around this, he blames external forces such as the EU for the country’s problems. On an ideological level, the Hungarian leader sees the EU as a threat to Hungary’s sovereignty and advocates for a comprehensive revision in accordance with his vision. As a matter of fact, Orbán was very dissatisfied with the EU’s sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and refused to tag along with it. His refusal to consider Ukraine’s EU accession is part of a larger effort to persuade the European Commission to release €10 billion from Hungary’s frozen funds. The irony is that Brussels is extending its aid while anti-EU posters reemerge on Budapest’s streets.
Recently, after the EU summit that granted Ukraine 50 billion euros in aid over 4 years, Orbán posted on his socials “We fought it out! They can’t give Hungarian money to the Ukrainians! We will not take part in the war, we will not send weapons, we remain on the side of peace!” And after abandoning the Ukraine funding battle, Orbán has joined European farmers in opposing price cuts, a move that could have ramifications for the approaching June elections. He spoke with angry farmers, accusing “Brussels bureaucrats” of enabling low-quality Ukrainian grain to flood EU markets in order to show solidarity with Ukraine. “It’s a European mistake that the voice of people is not taken seriously, and the European Commission should represent the interest of the European farmers vis-a-vis Ukraine and not represent the interest of Ukrainian farmers against the European ones,” Orbán told RTL, a Hungarian channel that is disapproving of the government.
Orbán, whose administration created an iron wall along the Serbian border to stop migrant entry, is fiercely against Hungary becoming an “immigrant country,” claiming that other European countries have already gone through similar transformations. Even the Pope, concerned about rising nationalism, urged Orbán and the Hungarian government to welcome refugees in line with the European direction.
Now, many other European politicians are adopting Victor Orbán’s mindset and ideology. Herbert Kickl, the newly hailed leader of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria, said that Hungary was a role model for him, and he will no longer be accepting migrant applications nor will he be supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia. He even promised to block Ukraine’s accession to the EU and any further damaging sanctions on Russia. Kickl was named Volkskanzler which meant people’s chancellor, a Nazi title given to Hitler in 1933, in an event for their party which is leading in the polls at around 30%. The Freedom Party of Austria even protested the speech of President Zelenskyy in March 2023 in front of the parliament by leaving after the speech started. Their reason was that they were protecting Austria’s neutrality.
Populist shift in Slovakia
Another successful populist shift is Fico’s new win in Slovakia’s 2023 elections and being sworn in as the new Prime Minister. Fico’s return to office in Slovakia marks a substantial shift in the country’s foreign policy, especially toward Ukraine. Fico secured a legislative majority by forming a coalition cabinet with the center-left Hlas party (Voice – Social Democracy) and the ultranationalist Slovak National Party. While the former leadership backed Ukraine, Fico disagrees with the EU’s sanctions against Russia and has promised to suspend arms supplies to Ukraine.
Fico, like Hungary’s Orbán, advocated for rapid peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which Kyiv opposed. Fico said on his very first day in power that he supported humanitarian help to Ukraine but would discontinue military support. This shift, which includes the cessation of military support and a break with the European consensus, represents an important shift from the last government’s viewpoints. The new government intends to make significant domestic policy changes, focusing on immigration and foreign-funded NGOs. There are numerous reservations regarding possible meddling with judicial processes as important investigative positions are replaced. This has sparked concern among EU member states, drawing parallels to Hungary’s trajectory.
Fico and his party SMER (Direction in English) secured the lead in polls promising to pursue an independent foreign policy to boost Slovak sovereignty, take a strict stance on immigration, fight against non-governmental organizations, and slander LGBTQ+ rights.
Right-wing Politics in Spain
Spain’s right-wing populist party, Vox, is also gaining more and more support as well. Using social media channels like Instagram and TikTok, Vox combines traditional Spanish images with anti-immigrant and Islamophobic sentiments, blaming riots in France on illegal immigration, and campaigning against LGBTQ+ rights and feminism. The party’s head, Santiago Abascal, appears in a variety of venues, and Vox’s attraction to young people is due to its effective use of the internet, which addresses economic difficulties such as employment insecurity and housing shortages. Regardless of accusations of spreading disinformation, Vox has gained significant popularity among the younger demographic.
Islamophobic Tendencies in Sweden
Moreover, the Swedish Democrats are actively fighting against the EU’s immigration policies, portraying themselves as Eurosceptics and advocating Islamophobic beliefs like prohibiting building new Mosques and even tearing down existing ones. Their position reflects a significant resistance to the bloc’s immigration policies. Furthermore, the party has been loud in its criticism of the EU’s green and environmental efforts, being the most anti-green deal party in the EU. This represents a larger rejection of environmental policy, indicating a multidimensional opposition that goes beyond immigration concerns. The Swedish Democrats’ political program reflects their opposition to the EU’s immigration policies, environmental concerns, and a general attitude against supranational authority.
The Rise of Geer Wilders
Another far-right populist win was recorded in the Netherlands, with the winning Party For Freedom PVV leader Geert Wilders assigned to create a government. Wilders has always been an activist against immigration and Islam. He has argued that permits given to Syrians should be revoked and the Quran should be banned. Furthermore, he has a very tough anti-EU stance, seeking more national decision-making. The Dutch election highlighted the important subject of migration, which is a source of constant anxiety for EU lawmakers. Geert Wilders, in his victory speech, pledged to combat the surge in asylum seekers affecting the Netherlands. Supporters’ approval of Wilders during the current election is primarily due to his anti-immigrant attitude, followed by his thoughts on the cost-of-living problem.
The PVV has been an outspoken supporter of a ‘Nexit’ referendum, an opinion poll for leaving the European Union, opposing further integration, and accusing the bloc of gaining unequal authority. The party’s policy emphasizes the necessity of recovering national sovereignty, especially with regard to borders, economics, and legislation. They claim that they will resist undemocratic values when they refuse to receive mandates on delicate topics such as environment deals and immigration from non-elected EU commissioners. Additionally, the PVV is not only targeting non-EU immigrants but also other EU citizens seeking work in the Netherlands under the freedom of movement concept, planning to require EU nationals to attain a work permit in order to work and live in The Netherlands.
The potential shift in Germany and France
When we talk about major players on the European stage like France and Germany, the two biggest economies in the bloc, we can see that they are also affected by the populist far-right wing surge in the polls.
In France, Marine Le Pen leading her Rassemblement National, RN (National Rally in English) got more than 40 percent of the votes in the last parliamentary elections, marking the first time the far-right marks as much popularity among the French. Major national issues that Marine’s RN is campaigning against are immigration and Islam, security, housing and cost-of-living, and the economy. Le Pen is going hardline core against terrorism which is occurring more occasionally in France, and she is linking it to Islamic beliefs and mindsets, especially after the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East where she called out the murder of the 16-year-old Tomas in a school play in Crepol as sort of razzia, which resembles an aggressive assault for the intent to capture, loot, and ethnic cleanse, particularly one conducted by Islam and Arabs. She also joined an antisemitic rally in support of French Jews, knowing that Jews will probably vote for the far-right for an Islamophobic agenda. Moreover, the RN is expected to gather 33 percent of the votes in the EU parliamentary elections this year, ahead of Macron’s party with only 14 percent. Moreover, the far-right Reconquête party might collect up to 6 percent of the vote.
While the French far-right backed down on the idea of leaving the EU because of the public backlash in earlier elections, they are still leading a very Eurosceptic view on the EU institutions’ policies, adopting a very hard stance on immigration policies.
The Alternative for Germany AfD far-right extremist party is also rising in the ranks and gaining a bigger momentum, with its youth wing set to be banned by national jurisdiction under the charges of being extremist. This party engages in anti-immigrant and anti-Islam rhetoric, with a plan of deporting a huge number of foreigners and non-German residents to a “model state” in Northern Africa, including immigrants who have residence permits. Furthermore, the AfD far-right populist party and similar parties around Europe have shown that they are skilled at capitalizing on voters’ concerns about immigration, the lingering implications of the conflict in Ukraine, and the issues linked with the rising cost of living (Millender, 2024). Germany’s far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is expected to receive 17% of the total vote, a significant gain from 11% in the 2019 European Union election.
It is very important to also mention the series of farmer protests echoing across Europe. From the East to West, farmers are taking to the streets in protest to the implications of cheap external imports and the rise of the cost of all pesticides and oil as a result of the EU green deals. Belgium, Germany, France, Spain, Poland, and others are facing a huge outrage from farmers due to these issues, and in some cases, the conflict between the farmers and the government is becoming violent. Although the farmers’ issue has not been explicitly on the schedule for the EU leaders’ Ukraine aid summit, the situation was tackled, and the outputs included plans from the bloc’s Commission to restrict crop supplies from Ukraine and loosen certain environmental regulations. The far-right movements around Europe are all trying to ride the wave of angry farmers. In Germany, the AfD used the farmer protest to launch their attacks on Chancellor Olaf Scholz, similarly in France with the RN against President Macron, accusing them of killing the countries’ agriculture and giving their markets to other cheap unqualified products. It is predicted that the upcoming EU parliament following the 2024 election will be Right-wing lead, and there are fears of the EU becoming ungoverned due to the rise of far-right parties in the 720-representative parliament.
Shifting Political Paradigms in the European Union
With the EU parliamentary elections on the doorstep, the far-right and populist conservatives are expected to gain a big increase in their presence within the 720-representative parliament in the upcoming June vote. The radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) is expected to gain 40 seats with a total of 98 MEPs, granting itself the third largest representation in the parliament. On the other hand, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) amounted to gain similar representation or even maybe higher if Victor Orbán’s party decided to join. Both ID and ECR will represent 25% of the whole parliament. Although the European People’s Party is expected to still attain its rank as the largest group in the parliament, this does not mean that it alone can have the utmost power.
What does a conservative right-leaning EU mean to its member states and the world?
We can see that the speculation of the rise in far-right power taking effect more than 5 months before the EU election is set to take place. EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen announced that she wants to continue with a second term as the head of the EU executive body. But with the backlash she got within her first term’s policies and regulations, mainly on immigration and the famous green deal, she will face a hard re-election with parties like Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party, the German AfD and Fico’s SMER plotting against her. However, Von der Leyen recently took several steps in support of right-wing parties’ agendas such as easing climate and environmental regulations, toning down the goals of the Green Deal, and taking a very strong stance on immigration, some of the boldest topics the populist right-wing parties are echoing.
This is a clear message to the EU voters and the world that the Union is changing its direction this year. Although a majority of prospective parties support Ukraine and the financial and military assistance provided by the bloc, there would now be a new resistance in the European Parliament that sympathizes with Russia and will debate the support of Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia. Some reports have shown that Russia is in contact with some Eurosceptic parties such as the far-right in Germany, France, and Slovakia to undermine EU support for Ukraine. It was also widespread among the Parliament and in the media that Latvian MEP Tatjana Ždanoka is working with the Russian government and the security services as an informant. The EP is investigating the case after The Insider, a Russian newspaper, shared an article on how Ždanoka was an agent for Russian Intelligence through leaked emails. Additionally, The Insider mentioned the close relationship between Ždanoka and Russia, and how Russia lobbied ethnic Russians in Latvia to vote for her in the EU elections. Ždanoka was among the very few MEPs voting against the resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Other parties would also reflect on the EU voters who are arguing the implications of the insane amount of financial support to Ukraine which they would like to be toned down. Some other major topics will be tackled such as the autonomy of member states on certain matters and resisting the interference of Brussels in their national policies. But the major two topics that will be deliberated in the new balance of power are immigration and the environmental policies of the Green Deal.
It is believed that the right-wing alliance will hinder the EU’s green agenda by launching an “anti-climate policy action”. The projected formation of the new parliament is likely to result in the failure of hard-shifting green deals very ambitious environmental goals and objectives, and other contentious legislation.
This could have a substantial impact on EU migration and refugee policies, notably in terms of civil freedoms and justice. It is almost certain that the vast majority of the European Parliament will support severe immigration controls. This majority is likely to push the commission to modify the EU’s asylum policy structure, granting member nations greater autonomy and limiting the equitable distribution of refugee quotas. Even among Schengen member states, some border policy change was noticed because of illegal immigration. After the news on how Poland with its previous PiS government was issuing visas for foreigners in exchange for a certain amount of money, Germany proceeded with border controls over the Polish and Czech borders to prevent the influx of illegal migrants and combat smugglers.
In my understanding, a change is inevitably coming very soon to the beacon bloc of human rights, freedom, and democracy. An immigration policy is set for success, unlike the prospective climate laws and the Green Deal which will be hindered in ways that would calm the public, especially the farmers’ revolution that is happening all over the member states. More restrictions on Ukraine’s financial support and imports will be implemented, which in turn will affect the Ukrainian spirit and motives toward the EU.
Some far-right-leaning member states will live their fantasies of leading in a conservative framework against minority rights such as in Slovakia, Hungary, and Italy. EU member states might refuse to accept a large number of asylum seekers, limiting the number of immigrants’ access to the EU and restricting the Schengen rules and regulations to counter illegal migration from the south and east. We could witness some tight naval blockages on the northern coast of the Mediterranean and in the southern Balkan region.
The EU would decrease its foreign spending and mostly focus on the bloc’s competitiveness in sight of the US with the prospect of return of Trump and on the other hand, the autocratic beast of the east, China.
One more important topic that has been tackled recently is the defense and military capacity of the bloc against external factors, knowing that most EU leaders want to progress with a more autonomous defense strategy, uncuffing from the US military oversight. President Ursula Von der Leyen focused on her bid for a second term on how to transform the EU into a military power by appointing a new defense commissioner and joint defense spending for member states, more than her green transformation and climate policies. Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People’s Party (EPP) addressed the EU voters and said that the far-right parties are against their needs as they are the friends of Putin and Russia, and this is very worrisome for the EU’s defense and sovereignty.
Younger voters are mostly not xenophobic, anti-immigration, or anti-Islam, nor do they oppose green and sustainable policies, but they care about their countries and future. Most unsupported left-wing policies are the high influx of migration that goes at the expense of European taxpayers, and welfare state intervention, especially healthcare, housing, education, and income redistribution. These pushed young voters to support far-right charismatic leaders who might speak their language and promise economic proliferation and resolutions on these policies that concern them.
Conclusion
As the populist far-right campaigns have been analyzed, we can find a lot of common slogans and subjects. The main agenda that nearly all parties argue against is the immigration policy of the EU, the Islam influx in Europe, and the assistance to Ukraine. Other hot topics tackled by these parties are minority rights, abortion, and the fight against non-governmental organizations.
Notably, these parties are attaining more and more publicity and support in their national states, but also it is expected that they secure a majority in the following EU parliamentary election this year and gain the power to shape the supranational body with what aligns with their policies and viewpoints. Some of the current events are giving these populist leaders launchpads to take advantage of, such as the ongoing farmers’ protests across Europe.