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Estonia’s foreign policy after the war in Ukraine

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Introduction

Estonia’s Independence Day on February 24th took on new significance when Russia invaded Ukraine on the same date in 2022. While the timing of the invasion was likely coincidental, it has since become a powerful symbol of Ukraine’s importance to Estonia and the ongoing threat posed by Russia, despite Estonia’s membership in NATO.  Over, 1,000 days have passed since this monumental date and it is a good time to take stock of Estonian foreign policy.  The war in Ukraine continues to impact Estonian foreign policy in many ways. What are Estonia’s key priorities and strategies? What has changed in Estonian foreign policy since 2022?

Strong support for NATO and the EU

Estonia has been described as a super-Atlanticist[1] for its strong support of NATO and the importance it places on its relationship with the United States. In 2014 on an official state visit, then-U.S. president Obama called Estonia a “model ally.”[2] Estonia’s contributions to NATO’s mission in Afghanistan and its willingness to spend 2% of its GDP on defence were two important factors that President Obama highlighted.

Estonia’s special relationship with the United States does not mean it has underinvested in relations with European allies. Estonia also has been a model partner for Germany and France.  After the great recession, Estonia sacrificed significantly to keep budget deficits under 3% to qualify to join the Eurozone.  This offered legitimacy to Germany’s position of fiscal austerity at a critical moment during the Eurozone crisis. France has been appreciative of Estonia’s support of several security initiatives[3].  Estonia’s participation in France led Barkharne mission in Mali, was a significant step in strengthening France-Estonia relations[4].

Estonia has also been supportive of the EU as an institution.  In addition to joining the Eurozone on time, it contributed to the European Stability Mechanism despite wages and pensions being lower than the Southern European countries caught in a debt crisis. During the Syrian refugee crisis, Estonia agreed to participate in the burden-sharing by taking in refugees despite a lack of public support. Estonian leaders explained that this support was needed to show solidarity and to be a good ally[5]. Estonia has continued a policy of strong support of NATO, the EU, and the United States.  With this support, Estonia has been able to develop a reputation as a producer of security, not just a consumer of security[6].

Global Engagement

The 2010s was a decade of peace and growth for many Eastern European states.  There was war and conflict in the region during this time, for example, the 2008 war in Georgia, the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2014 conflict in Eastern Ukraine.  The perception of Russia as a threat increased but the impact of these conflicts on Estonia was manageable. One such impact was reverse sanctions that Russia applied to the dairy sector (among other sectors).  Estonia was able to sign a free trade agreement with Japan at record speed to export milk powder, which helped save the dairy sector[7].

In the larger scope of things, the deal with Japan now seems like a small detail, but it was a sign of things to come.  The economic growth and relative peace saw new global opportunities for Estonia.  Estonia was a member of the UN Human Rights Council from 2013-2015 and the UN Security Council from 2020-2021. Estonia’s global engagement was most evident in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.  Estonia opened a new embassy in Abu Dhabi in 2019[8] and participated in the 2020 World Expo in Dubai[9].  Improved relations with several Sub-Saharan African countries began with Estonia’s campaign to join the UN Security Council. To be successful in that bid, Estonia would need global support, especially from African nations. Then-president Kersti Kaljulaid was instrumental in gaining support for Estonia’s UN Security Council bid and in forging relations with Sub-Saharan African countries through several high-profile visits[10].

In 2020 Estonia came out with a “comprehensive strategy for engaging with Africa for 2020-2030…”[11] The Africa strategy called for a new embassy to be opened in Kenya and identified priority partner countries for development cooperation.

Though designated as a high-income country by the World Bank, Estonia is a small state with limited resources to make significant differences in developing countries. What has enabled Estonia to be successful in development cooperation is its ability to share its experiences with e-governance.  Estonia has earned the nickname of E-stonia due to its significant innovations in e-governance and cyber security.  Online voting, digital residency, a digital embassy, and significant cooperation between the public and private sectors regarding cyber security are all examples.

Unfortunately, the Covid pandemic in 2020 complicated many aspects of the Africa strategy including the postponement of the announced embassy in Kenya.  Funding took another hit when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.  Development cooperation budgets were refocused to support Ukraine. Though Estonia has refocused its foreign policy priorities towards Ukraine and the region, relations with African countries will continue and likely regain some level of prominence once the war in Ukraine has ended.

Estonian foreign policy after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine

It is important to note that the war in Ukraine began in 2014, not in 2022.  During the 2014 conflict, Estonia was limited in what it felt it could strategically do.  For example, Estonia did not send weapons to Ukraine in 2014.  Larger actors such as the United States, France, and Germany took the lead in setting the framework for what level of support would be offered to Ukraine and what kind of penalty Russia would face for annexing Crimea and beginning the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. In 2022 it was a different story.  Estonia took a strong leadership position even before the conflict began.  For example, it was among the first to send lethal aid to Ukraine as the conflict broke out including 122 mm D 30 Howitzers and Javelin anti-tank weapons[12]. Proportionally, Estonia is one of the top military aid donors to Ukraine with contributions equaling 1.3% of Estonia’s GDP as of early 2024[13].

Estonia’s assertive reaction to Russia’s invasion goes beyond significant military assistance to Ukraine. For example, Estonia provided significant cyber security assistance to Ukraine in the early days of the war[14]. The format for coordinating civilian cybersecurity is called the Tallinn Mechanism which also demonstrates Estonia’s role in providing cyber security assistance to Ukraine.  Beyond, material and direct aid, Estonia has been an influential actor in shaping the global narratives about supporting Ukraine[15].  Former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas engaged with international media ensuring that Estonia’s position on Ukraine was well represented.  Her innovative suggestion for the EU’s collective procurement process for artillery shells was a significant development in European arms production[16]. Estonia has also been one of the leading voices for international justice, calling for an international tribunal to try Russian war criminals. Estonia has made this point a priority when discussing issues about the war in Ukraine[17].

Though, Estonia has had financial challenges and has had to increase taxes it has committed to spend at least .25% of its GDP on support for Ukraine.  This ensures that it will continue to be a standard bearer going forward.

Well positioned for a turbulent future

Despite the significant assistance Estonia has and continues to give Ukraine, it has also taken noteworthy steps to increase its military readiness.  Military spending in Estonia is now over 3% of GDP which has enabled it to invest in air defense systems, long-range artillery, and stockpiles of ammo for those systems.  This spending increase does not rival what is going on in Poland, but it significantly increases Estonia’s ability to fight off an attack if Russia chooses to invade in the future.

The geopolitical situation of the Baltic Sea region is a turbulent one and new developments are happening quickly.  Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure in the region continue and it shows no signs of easing up its maximalist goals in its imperialist war in Ukraine. Despite these troubling trends, there are reasons to be optimistic.  Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO changes the dynamics of defence in the Baltic Sea region.  NATO’s ability to defend the Baltic States is now much different due to the maritime and aerial access that Sweden and Finland bring.  It is clear that Russia has a history of invading its neighbour and continues with its imperial conquests. These conquests have not yet included a NATO member. NATO membership coupled with Estonia’s preparedness and leadership leaves Estonia in a relatively good position to manage the turbulent world ahead.

References

[1] Wivel, A., & Crandall, M. (2019). Punching above their weight, but why? Explaining Denmark and Estonia in the transatlantic relationship. Journal of transatlantic studies17(3), 392-419.

[2] https://ee.usembassy.gov/remarks-president-obama-president-ilves-estonia-joint-press-conference/

[3] Estonia was among the first countries to join PESCO (Permanent Structure Cooperation) and the Intervention Initiative.

[4] Crandall, M., & Sulg, M. L. (2020). Small states ‘thinking big’in a multiplex world: Estonia’s foreign policy.

[5] Crandall, M., & Sulg, M. L. (2020). Small states ‘thinking big’in a multiplex world: Estonia’s foreign policy.

[6] The phrase “producer of security not only consumer of security” was first made by then Foreign Minister Toomas Hendrik Ilves in 1996. https://vm.ee/en/news/address-foreign-minister-toomas-hendrik-ilves-riigikogu

[7] https://www.mkm.ee/en/news/sulling-estonian-dairy-producers-have-signed-their-first-contracts-japanese-corporation

[8] https://vm.ee/en/news/mikser-embassy-abu-dhabi-opens-new-opportunities-estonia-strategic-region

[9] https://estonia.ee/estonias-pavilion-opening-at-expo-2020-dubai/

[10] https://news.err.ee/881899/president-to-visit-three-african-nations-on-ground-breaking-trip

https://news.err.ee/881899/president-to-visit-three-african-nations-on-ground-breaking-trip

[11] Estonia’s Strategy for Africa, document available from: https://www.vm.ee/en/estonias-strategy-africa#documents

[12] https://news.err.ee/1608513764/germany-gives-estonia-permission-to-send-weapons-to-ukraine-media

[13] https://www.vm.ee/en/news/estonias-support-ukraine#:~:text=As%20of%20early%202024%2C%20Estonia,greatest%20military%20supporters%20of%20Ukraine.

[14] https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=1269030

[15] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/13691481241280368

[16] https://valitsus.ee/en/news/prime-minister-kallas-ammunition-procurement-ukraine-shows-estonias-voice-being-heard-0

[17] https://news.err.ee/1609001012/mps-want-russian-crimes-special-tribunal-to-become-foreign-policy-priority

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