Historically, the Caspian region is a nexus of power dynamics and geopolitical interests and is undergoing a notable shift. The “Unity 2024” military exercises, scheduled from July 8 to July 17, 2024, represent a transformative period for the region’s security architecture. Involving Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, these exercises symbolize a collective stride towards increased regional autonomy, independence, and cooperation, and notably, will proceed without the involvement of the region’s traditionally dominant powers: Russia, Iran, and China. On April 4, representatives from the operational command staffs of these five South Caucasus and Central Asian countries convened in Aktau, Kazakhstan, where they agreed to conduct the “Бірлестік (Unity) – 2024” exercises. These are set to take place at the Oymasha training facility in Kazakhstan and Cape Tokmak in the Caspian Sea. The exercises are planned to include activities that pinpoint locations of armed conflicts and practice complex scenarios such as night operations at sea and paratrooper landings, further emphasizing the strategic depth and readiness these nations aim to achieve.
Historical Context
During the Cold War, the Caspian and Central Asian regions were solidly under the Soviet sphere of influence. The dissolution of the Soviet Union introduced a power vacuum that these nations have been navigating, often under the significant influence of Russia, and to some extent, China and Iran. Yet, the “Unity 2024” exercises signify a crucial realignment. For the first time, these nations are orchestrating a large-scale military collaboration independently, signalling a deliberate recalibration of traditional alliances and a robust assertion of their sovereignty. Concurrently, amid Russia’s recent efforts to maintain its influence in the ‘Eurasian heartland’ through mechanisms like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes countries like Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, Caspian states are increasingly seeking to enhance their military capabilities independently, bypassing Moscow. The distancing of states such as Armenia and Kyrgyzstan from the CSTO underscores emerging divisions within this Russia-led organization. With Russia’s focus shifted towards Ukraine, the resulting decreased pressure on the Caspian region has allowed these states more room to strengthen their defence capabilities, focusing on improving combat training quality and troop readiness.
Details of the Exercise
“Unity 2024” is a robust demonstration of military capabilities and strategic intent. With over 4,000 personnel and 700 military assets, including tanks, artillery, aircraft, and naval vessels, the exercises will cover a range of operations. These include coordinated manoeuvres and tactical drills to enhance interoperability and readiness across the participating nations. The exercises will be held both at the Oymasha training facility in Kazakhstan and in maritime zones near Cape Tokmak on the Caspian Sea, highlighting the dual focus on land and naval capabilities.
The Role of Key Players
Azerbaijan is capitalizing on its recent combat experience and NATO-standard training to highlight its strategic military significance in the region. This is complemented by the active participation of Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, all of which share a commitment to bolstering regional security independently of major global powers. Each nation contributes unique capabilities and strategic interests, enhancing the collective defence posture of the region. Historically, the increased military collaboration in the Caspian following the onset of the Ukraine conflict had been restricted to bilateral drills, including exercises between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan (“UZAZ-2023”), Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (“Kanzhar-2023”), and Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan (“Khazri-2023”). However, the upcoming “Unity – 2024” exercises present a novel opportunity for these Central Asian states and Azerbaijan to deepen their military cooperation on a multilateral level, free from the influence of external powers, thereby solidifying an independent regional security framework.
Towards a Multipolar Order
The conspicuous absence of Russia, Iran, and China from the “Unity-2024” exercises—even as observers—is highly significant. It underscores a potential decline in Russia’s regional influence amid its preoccupation with Ukraine and similarly indicates a recalibration of Iran’s and China’s roles in Central Asian security matters. This shift reflects the Caspian states’ inclination towards establishing independent security frameworks and balancing their international relations without overly depending on traditional powers. The “Unity-2024” tactical military training exercises mark a critical milestone in the military partnership among Caspian states, being the first operation conducted independently of Russian involvement. Amidst these encouraging developments and growing unity, there is an anticipation for the continuation of such collaborative exercises. These exercises represent a positive trend in enhancing the military capacities and coordination abilities of the Caspian nations, although they must navigate the challenges posed by their historically dominant neighbour with caution.
The “Unity 2024” exercises signal a broader trend towards multipolarity in global geopolitics, as these nations seek to foster independent security frameworks. This strategic autonomy is crucial in a region historically fragmented by the interests of larger powers. By enhancing cooperation among themselves, especially among Turkic-speaking nations, these countries not only strengthen their security but also affirm cultural and strategic solidarity.
Historically, the dissolution of the Soviet Union left a void in the Caspian and Central Asian regions, which have since navigated the delicate balance of independence against the considerable gravitational pull of traditional power centers. However, the upcoming exercises, involving key regional players like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, are a clear demonstration of their commitment to forge a collective path towards enhancing security frameworks that are independent of external control. This initiative is critical, given the strategic military importance and unique capabilities each nation brings to the table, further solidifying their collective defense posture.
Conclusion
The strategic autonomy exhibited in the “Unity 2024” exercises is not merely about military might; it is also a declaration of the region’s capability and readiness to handle security concerns on its own terms. With over 4,000 personnel and a formidable array of military assets, these exercises will cover extensive ground and maritime operations, aimed at enhancing interoperability and readiness across these nations. The significant absence of Russia, Iran, and China—not even as observers—underscores a potential recalibration of their roles and influence in the region, suggesting a possible decline in their traditional sway and a realignment of regional security dynamics.
This pivotal moment is about more than military manoeuvres; it is about redefining relationships and expectations within the region and on the global stage. The Caspian states are setting a precedent for regional cooperation, independent capability development, and strategic solidarity, which could inspire similar shifts in other historically influenced regions. The “Unity 2024” exercises, therefore, are not just tactical military operations but are emblematic of a deeper, more profound shift towards self-reliance and regional stability, marking a new chapter in the strategic narrative of the Caspian and Central Asian states.