A Change of Mindset: Bolstering NATO’s Defense for Collective Security
All Baltic leaders call for a stronger and more coordinated European defence framework within NATO to ensure collective security across the continent. They advocate for increased defence spending, a greater presence of NATO forces on NATO’s Eastern Flank, and equitable contributions from all member states to enhance collective security. As Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs points out, “our own collective defence spending, defence development and the capability of the defence industry (…) are lagging behind”[1]. Levits agrees with this concern, arguing that “in the middle and long term there should be a new security architecture of Europe because the old one is dead”, emphasizing that “Western democracies should be able to defend themselves” and that “the strengthening of the Eastern Flank of NATO is now really urgent”[2].
According to all Baltic leaders, the effective strategy to counter Russian aggression and ensure the security of especially smaller nations, like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania is deterrence through credible defence capacities in all areas. Therefore, not only Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania must adhere to NATO’s two-percent-rule. Every NATO member should contribute equitably to defence, ensuring that the alliance remains resourceful and ready to counter Russian threats effectively.
Important here, as especially expressed by Kallas, is that there is a strong need for a shift in mindset, especially in Western and Southern European nations. The main message that she aims to convey is that “the best way to achieve peace is the willingness to use military strength”[3], arguing that, “to have peace, you have to prepare for war”[4]. She points out that this must not be viewed as an act of provocation, as “defence is not escalation”[5]. With this in mind, she urges European nations to move beyond hesitation: “We have to think: what more can be done? (…) We should not be afraid of our power”[6].
Lithuanian PM Ingrida Šimonytė agrees that “some politicians try to evaluate Putin in line with our understanding of the world,” but stresses that “he is not one of us” and that “he takes appeasement as a sign of weakness”[7]. This is echoed by Rinkēvičs, adding that “our experience with Russia is: if you are firm, if you show strength, then they stop and backtrack”[8]. In this way, the Baltic political leaders stand at the forefront to advocate that more should be done to strengthen NATO’s defence capabilities and military coordination, which must be translated into a tangible defence plan that is ready for action. Not to escalate the war, but to defend our borders.
Memory as a Strategic Tool: the Baltics Understand Russian Threats
Coming to the paper’s central argument, history and memory have played a crucial role in the Baltic states’ push for more support for Ukraine and a united European front against Russian aggression. Drawing from their history, the Baltic states position themselves as nations who “truly” understand Russia’s interests, practices, and ambitions. Having endured Russian and Soviet aggression, occupation, repression, and the loss of sovereignty, they view Russia’s current aggression as a continuation of its past expansionist ambitions. As Kallas states it: “the way Russia operates has brought all the wounds that we have here and opened them up because of our history,”[9], and she emphasizes that “witnessing the continuation of Russia’s colonialist land grab policy today in Ukraine is a heartbreaking reminder of how history can repeat itself”[10]. In this way, the war in Ukraine is not just viewed as a geopolitical crisis of the present, but a historical pattern that is repeating itself, and if left unchecked, will threaten all of Europe eventually.
Through the use of history and memory, Baltic leaders seek to raise awareness about Russia’s historical and contemporary approach and intentions, particularly among Western and Southern European nations that have not experienced Russian aggression first-hand. By giving a Baltic “history lesson” of their Soviet occupation, repression and human suffering, such as forced deportations, mass atrocities, and the denial of sovereignty, they aim to draw parallels to what is happening in Ukraine now. And therefore, to make others understand that Russia’s geopolitical ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine’s experience, and pose a direct challenge to European security and stability.
As Kallas highlights, “After the Second World War (…) we had “peace”, but for us, it meant deportations, it meant torture, it meant atrocities and human suffering for our people”[11]. She adds: “Many countries have suffered under colonial wars. So has mine. I know that Russia isn’t typically thought of as a colonial power. Estonia, my own country, went through Russia’s colonisation and occupation for almost half a century, up until 1991”[12]. Kariņš similarly states that “Latvians have experienced. We read of the deportation of the children and people remember. We look at the mass graves and we remember. We look at the people just being shot and we remember. It is the same. It is repeating, and repeating, and repeating” and that “the Russians did to Latvia what they are doing to Ukraine in Bucha (…) It happened to us, in our living memory, our family memory. And we see it happening to [Ukraine] today”[13]. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis stated that “Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have been occupied, colonised, and exploited by this same aggressor more than once. More. Than. Once. And that is why we know from bitter experience that whatever words are spoken, whatever agreements are signed, this aggressor has no plans to stop… until he is stopped”[14].
This historical awareness is not just theoretical; it is made personal. Kallas frequently references her own family’s suffering under Soviet rule to highlight the lasting impact of Russian aggression: “I am the child of deportees that Stalin sent away to Siberia. My mother was just six months old when she was deported on a cattle car along with her mother and grandmother, to what Estonians call the ‘cold land’”[15]. Baltic political leadership is filled with these personal stories that are shared among all Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians. By drawing parallels to the war in Ukraine, they aim to show that Russian aggression is not a distant chapter in history but an ongoing threat that still shapes people’s lives today: “Ukrainian kids are being deported to Russia. I can well imagine the feelings of those 75-year-old Estonians who returned from Siberia after being deported there as kids by Soviet Russia”[16] and “We Estonians have some experience in being deported and fleeing wars. We also have some experience with Russia which we have been trying to share with the European Union since we joined. (…) But my mother – the same baby who took her first trip abroad to Siberia – always taught me that it was always impolite to say: I told you so”[17].
Conclusions
Baltic political leadership has proven that history and memory are powerful tools in shaping European security frameworks. Through the strategic power of their narratives and historical memory, they have played a prominent role in bolstering Europe’s strategic response to Russian aggression. Collectively, they have been particularly effective in mobilizing more political, military, financial, and humanitarian support for Ukraine, maintaining unity and cooperation within the EU and NATO, and strengthening NATO’s defence capabilities and structures. By drawing analogies between their history and Russia’s war in Ukraine today, they have been effective in framing Russia as a historical threat as well as a contemporary aggressor to create a sense of collective responsibility among all EU nations.
Among the Baltic leaders, former Estonian PM Kaja Kallas has particularly stood out with her effective use of narratives and historical memory. By positioning herself as a key advocate for a robust European and NATO response to Russian aggression, she has made the Baltic states’ voices heard on the European and global stage. This leadership has rewarded her with the position of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy in December 2024. This highlights the importance of her leadership in Europe’s strategic response to Russia’s ongoing threats.
Overall, the Baltic states, as historical witnesses of Soviet occupation and repression, have positioned themselves successfully at the frontline of defending against Russian aggression by advocating for more support for Ukraine and stronger EU and NATO unity. Despite their limited economic and military resources, the Baltic states set an example of strategic political leadership for other nations, to ensure a Ukrainian and European future that is strong, sovereign, and free.
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[1] TALKING WITH TVP WORLD. (2025, 14 January). New threats from Russia must trigger a response | Edgars Rinkēvičs [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szv_2DdXvk8
[2] ITV News. (2022, 28 February). “A nuclear option is suicide for Russia” warns Latvia’s President Egils Levits | ITV News [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r7ZL6IHNTg
[3] Reuters. (2022, 9 March). LIVE: EU parliament, Estonian PM debate European security after Ukraine invasion [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5b-ImwTNBk
[4] PBS NewsHour. (2022, 30 March). Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on the war in Ukraine and the Russian threat [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijLFTxLDw_4
[5] Sky News. (2024, 28 February). Estonian PM warns West “all options must be on the table” in Ukraine [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxrH-nA4vpk
[6] Sky News. (2024, 28 February). Estonian PM warns West “all options must be on the table” in Ukraine [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxrH-nA4vpk
[7] FRANCE 24 English. (2022, 11 October). Lithuanian PM Ingrida Simonyte: ‘Russia is losing, so Putin is attacking civilians’ • FRANCE 24 [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H_8vCThetA
[8] TRT World. (2022, 18 August). One-on-One – Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP6_u78dZzw
[9] EenVandaag. (2023, 20 March). De oorlog in Oekraïne voelt voor veel Esten persoonlijk, ook voor premier Kaja Kallas: “Het heeft alle oude wonden weer opengereten” [Video]. https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/de-oorlog-in-oekraine-voelt-voor-veel-esten-persoonlijk-ook-voor-premier-kaja-kallas-het-heeft-oude-wonden-opengereten/
[10] Republic of Estonia. (2024, 15 June). Address by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas at the opening plenary of the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. Republic Of Estonia. https://valitsus.ee/en/news/address-prime-minister-kaja-kallas-opening-plenary-summit-peace-ukraine
[11] EenVandaag. (2023, 20 March). De oorlog in Oekraïne voelt voor veel Esten persoonlijk, ook voor premier Kaja Kallas: “Het heeft alle oude wonden weer opengereten” [Video]. https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/de-oorlog-in-oekraine-voelt-voor-veel-esten-persoonlijk-ook-voor-premier-kaja-kallas-het-heeft-oude-wonden-opengereten/
[12] Republic of Estonia. (2024, 15 June). Address by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas at the opening plenary of the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. Republic Of Estonia. https://valitsus.ee/en/news/address-prime-minister-kaja-kallas-opening-plenary-summit-peace-ukraine
[13] Європейська правда. (2023, 20 March). “No Chance for Ukraine to Lose” US-born PM of Latvia, interview on the future of Russia and Europe [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YTBfmmZTJY
[14] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania. (2024, 8 March). Speech by Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Landsbergis at the United Nations Security Council on behalf of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. URM. https://www.urm.lt/en/news/928/speech-by-lithuanias-foreign-minister-landsbergis-at-the-united-nations-security-council-on-behalf-of-estonia-latvia-and-lithuania:42412
[15] Reuters. (2022, 9 March). LIVE: EU parliament, Estonian PM debate European security after Ukraine invasion [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5b-ImwTNBk
[16] Republic of Estonia. (2024a, March 19). Speech by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas at the Walther Rathenau Prize ceremony. Republic Of Estonia. https://valitsus.ee/en/news/speech-prime-minister-kaja-kallas-walther-rathenau-prize-ceremony
[17] Reuters. (2022, 9 March). LIVE: EU parliament, Estonian PM debate European security after Ukraine invasion [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5b-ImwTNBk