For decades, Iran’s Axis of Resistance has functioned as a powerful coalition challenging U.S. influence and Israeli actions in the Middle East. However, recent regional upheavals—ranging from the normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab states to internal economic crises—have raised questions about the alliance’s resilience. The situation has been further complicated by Israel’s targeted killings of key figures within the Axis, including Hezbollah leaders Ibrahim Aqil and Hassan Nasrallah, as well as Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. As the pillars of this alliance face increasing pressure, the question arises: Has Iran’s carefully cultivated network, stretching from Lebanon to Yemen, begun to fracture under these challenges?
The Axis of Resistance, forged by Iran in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, was conceived as a regional counterbalance to U.S. and Israeli dominance in the Middle East. By aligning with groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq, Iran extended its influence across the region, creating a broad anti-Western coalition. This network has been essential to Iran’s strategy of asymmetric warfare, allowing it to challenge adversaries through proxy forces rather than direct military confrontation. The Houthis, engaged in a long-standing conflict with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government—a war that has led to over 370,000 deaths—are a significant factor in Iran’s regional strategy, expanding its presence in the Arabian Peninsula. But as the leadership of key allies faces a series of assassinations and regional powers shift alliances, Iran’s ability to maintain its role as the centre of this resistance bloc is increasingly uncertain.
For the Iranian regime, the Axis of Resistance has not only been a strategic tool for projecting power abroad but also a critical part of its internal narrative. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s leaders have positioned themselves as the vanguard of resistance against Western imperialism, with the United States labelled the ‘Great Satan’ and Israel the ‘Zionist regime.’ This narrative has been essential for rallying nationalist and ideological support among the Iranian population, portraying the regime as a defender of Islam and protector of oppressed Muslim populations, especially Palestinians. Through this lens, the Axis of Resistance is not just a military alliance but a symbolic extension of the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary ideals. By positioning itself as the leader of anti-Western and anti-Israeli forces, the Iranian regime has been able to maintain a sense of unity and purpose, even as it faces internal crises such as economic sanctions, political opposition, and social unrest.
This image of resistance has also served a critical function in deflecting domestic discontent. By highlighting foreign threats, particularly from the West, the regime shifts focus away from internal problems like economic mismanagement, political repression, and social instability. Blaming Western sanctions for the country’s economic woes has allowed the regime to avoid accountability for its own corruption and inefficiency, especially during times of economic crisis. Furthermore, the narrative of resistance has been weaponised to suppress opposition, with pro-democracy activists, women’s rights groups, and ethnic minorities often portrayed as agents of foreign interference. Labelling dissenters as Western agents has justified crackdowns, helping the regime maintain control while portraying domestic unrest as part of a larger battle against external enemies. Through this dual-purpose narrative, the regime has been able to reinforce its legitimacy internally while justifying both its foreign interventions and domestic authoritarianism.
Despite Iran’s efforts to position itself as the linchpin of the resistance against Israel, shifting regional dynamics and internal vulnerabilities have steadily eroded this influence. The Abraham Accords have delivered one of the most significant blows to Iran’s Axis of Resistance, dramatically altering the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. These agreements, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, have fundamentally shifted regional alliances. For decades, Iran’s anti-Israel stance was bolstered by a widespread Arab consensus that viewed Israel as an illegitimate state, providing fertile ground for the Axis of Resistance to gain traction. However, the Abraham Accords have fractured this consensus, with key Arab states now prioritising economic cooperation and security partnerships with Israel over ideological opposition. This shift undermines the very foundation of Iran’s Axis, as resistance to Israeli influence is no longer a unifying cause among Arab nations. Iran’s role as the champion of Palestinian rights and anti-Israeli efforts is increasingly isolated, leaving Tehran struggling to maintain its influence amid the growing regional realignment.
Another striking blow to Iran’s credibility within the Axis of Resistance occurred in July 2024, when Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by an Israeli strike in Tehran. Haniyeh, who had travelled to Iran to attend the inauguration of the country’s new president, was killed in an attack that not only exposed Israel’s reach but also deeply embarrassed Iranian authorities. The assassination, which took place in a guesthouse managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), raised serious questions about Iran’s ability to protect its allies on its own soil. Despite extensive security measures, Israeli operatives managed to carry out the strike, leading to widespread arrests of Iranian officials and military personnel. This incident has laid bare Iran’s vulnerability and undermined its image as the unassailable leader of the resistance, creating both internal and external embarrassment for the Iranian government.
In light of its weakened state, Iran is likely to adapt its strategy by seeking new diplomatic alignments to retain regional influence, as demonstrated by the recent meeting between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshian and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A central aspect of this approach involves strengthening ties with non-Arab powers such as Russia and China, which can offer crucial political, military, and economic support. Iran’s longstanding opposition to U.S. influence in the Middle East makes its alignment with Russia a natural extension of the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” doctrine. For Russia, isolated from the West due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, this partnership offers mutual benefits—enhanced military cooperation, economic exchanges, and geopolitical coordination in regions like Syria. Iran benefits from Russian backing, which helps it mitigate the effects of harsh U.S. sanctions while offering Russia its expertise in asymmetric warfare tactics and regional influence through proxy groups.
In the ongoing proxy wars between Iran and Israel, it’s evident that Israel has decisively outmanoeuvred Iran. Through precision strikes and intelligence operations, Israel has systematically dismantled key elements of Iran’s proxy network, particularly in Lebanon and Gaza. This has left Iran’s regional influence crippled, as its proxies struggle to regain momentum and leadership in the face of constant Israeli targeting. Israel’s ability to infiltrate and neutralise threats, even within territories tightly controlled by Iran’s allies, showcases an imbalance in intelligence capabilities. Iran’s strategy of using regional militias as extensions of its military power is faltering, as these groups are repeatedly weakened, leaving Tehran exposed on multiple fronts.
Meanwhile, Iran’s retaliatory efforts, particularly through missile strikes, have proven largely ineffective. Israel’s advanced missile defence systems, such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling, have neutralised much of Iran’s offensive capabilities, rendering missile attacks by its proxy forces futile. The ineffective strikes highlight Iran’s declining military leverage in the region. Looking ahead, Iran may need to rethink its approach to proxy warfare, as traditional methods of retaliation and projection of power no longer match Israel’s technological superiority. If Tehran is to remain a relevant force in the region, it will have to innovate and pivot to more advanced forms of warfare, where Israel has already established dominance.