On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was inaugurated as President of the United States for a second term, succeeding his predecessor, Joe Biden. Within his first weeks back in office, he has already sent shockwaves across the world, laying the foundation for a new world order. Trump is steering the U.S. in a radically different direction, not only economically but also politically and militarily. This shift breaks away from decades of strengthening the Transatlantic Alliance. As a result, the consequences for Europe are deeply concerning.
Trump’s First Weeks in Office
The first weeks of President Trump’s second term have already provided clear evidence of his efforts to reshape the global order. He has pursued controversial and disruptive policies that challenge long-standing alliances and diplomatic, democratic norms. His foreign policy moves have, therefore, only grown more and more alarming.
Even before taking office, Trump focused on Greenland, stating that it is in the U.S.’s strategic interests to take over the territory, if needed, by force — despite it being an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark. Moreover, he has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, openly undermining a nation that has been one of America’s most intensive and reliable partners for decades. Trump’s proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza and transform the region into the “Riviera of the Middle East” has raised global concerns as well.
The last weeks of February 2025 marked an absolute turning point. A clear signal that the U.S. is abandoning Europe and undermining the Transatlantic Alliance. In a dramatic shift, U.S. support for Ukraine seems to have come to an end. Instead, the U.S. and Russia came together in Riyadh to “normalize” relations. After years of efforts by the West to internationally isolate Russia through economic sanctions and diplomatic exclusion, Trump has restarted cooperation with Russia in a matter of weeks. Most strikingly, relations between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have reached their lowest point. Trump has spread Russian propaganda by claiming that it was not Russia but Ukraine that started the war. Moreover, Trump openly called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator without elections”, demanding that Ukraine hold new elections to install a leader who is “legitimately” in power since Zelenskyy has an “approval rating of only four percent”. This means the complete delegitimization of Zelenskyy as President of Ukraine by the use of Kremlin propaganda.
On February 28, Zelenskyy and Trump met to discuss a mineral deal, which turned into an openly explosive clash between the two as never seen before. A few days later, this meant the end of all U.S. support to Ukraine. An American President is moving away from Europe, amplifying Russian propaganda on the world stage. These recent weeks have been good for Russia but deeply concerning for Europe.
Trump’s impact on NATO and Europe’s Security Landscape
According to the Bureau of the Political-Military Affairs (PM) under the U.S. Government, the U.S. has provided $66.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022, as of 4 March 2025[1], making it the largest contributor of support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. However, Trump has now stopped all military aid to Ukraine[2]. He has openly criticized Zelenskyy, accusing him of misleading the U.S. into spending billions on a war that “cannot be won”. Instead, Trump is demanding a $500 billion “payback” from Ukraine for past support. He views the conflict not as a fight for Western security and values but as a financial transaction.
Moreover, beyond cutting aid, Trump aims to position himself as a dealmaker, claiming he can end the war through a negotiated “peace deal”. His approach appears to be forcing Ukraine into an agreement that overwhelmingly favors Russia. Concerns have been raised that the proposed deal would formally cede the occupied territories in Crimea and Donbas to Russia, block Ukraine from NATO membership, and possibly prevent European peacekeeping forces from being deployed on Ukrainian territory. If such a deal is signed, it will do little to secure lasting peace. Rather, it would encourage Russia to go further. Intelligence agencies from multiple countries have warned that the deal would give Russia time to rebuild its military strength as it aims to expand its aggression toward NATO states in the Baltic region, Eastern Europe, and Northern Europe[3]/[4]. Through these commitments, Trump not only abandons Ukraine and Europe but also fails to commit to stopping Putin’s aggression in the long term, thereby encouraging Russia to go further in Ukraine and beyond.
Another alarming development is Trump’s repeated threat to withdraw the U.S. from NATO during his first term, along with his recent efforts to “hollow it out from within”[5]. This move fundamentally undermines the core ideas, values, and principles of collective defense and credible deterrence that NATO is built upon. NATO’s strength lies in Article 5, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. Important here is that NATO is not a military machine that simply “activates” when a NATO ally is attacked. Rather, it is an alliance built on unity and consensus whose effectiveness relies on the expressed certainty that an attack on one member will be met with a strong, collective response. This deterrence works only if Russia believes in it and refrains from any attack, ensuring the security of all members. Even if Trump does not formally withdraw the U.S. from NATO, his rhetoric and actions are already causing damage. By normalizing relations with Russia and turning his back on Europe and Ukraine, Trump actively weakens the alliance from within. This sends a dangerous signal: NATO’s most powerful member is no longer fully committed. This erosion of credibility is precisely what Russia has been waiting for. If NATO’s deterrence becomes uncertain, Putin may see an opportunity to test the alliance.
Another major concern is the possible withdrawal of a significant number of U.S. troops from European territory, also including from NATO’s Eastern Flank[6]. The U.S. military presence in Europe has been a cornerstone of NATO’s security architecture, deterring Russian aggression and bolstering Europe’s defense capabilities. A large-scale withdrawal would, therefore, leave Europe vulnerable. Due to decades of European dependence on the U.S. for its military capabilities, defense, and security, the key question is raised as to whether Europe can defend itself without U.S. support. Trump’s message is clear: Europe must stand on its own and can no longer count on the U.S. anymore. However, Europe is far from ready. For years, European nations have struggled with military interoperability, defense budgets have lagged behind, and political divisions have deepened. Historically, NATO and the EU are fractured, and European defense strategies remain weak. Over the years, the EU has failed to take a leadership role in supporting Ukraine and collectively strengthening the continent’s military capabilities. The EU or any European nation does not even have a seat at the negotiating table. Trump and Putin are discussing Ukraine and Europe without Ukraine and Europe. Without urgent action, this could be the beginning of a deeply unstable era for European security.
NATO’s Eastern Flank: Responding to Russian Threats
NATO’s military presence in the eastern part of the Alliance plays a crucial role in reinforcing its deterrence and defence posture. NATO has significantly reinforced its Eastern Flank in response to rising Russian aggression over the past decade, particularly since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022[7]. A breakthrough came in 2017 when four NATO battle groups were deployed in the region, signaling an increased participation of allied forces in joint military exercises. Currently, NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence consists of eight multinational battle groups stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, serving as deterrents against further Russian aggression[8]. Throughout the years, NATO’s exercises have made a gradual shift from enhancing crisis management capabilities to collective defense.
NATO’s collective defense spending increased by eighteen percent in 2024, leading to significant enhancements across the Alliance[9]. Air and missile defense systems have been strengthened, weapon stockpiles and equipment have been upgraded, and more ships and fighter jets have been stationed on the Eastern Flank, accompanied by thousands of extra troops who train and exercise together. Moreover, there has been an expansion of high-readiness forces from 13,000 to 40,000 personnel. NATO has strengthened its command and control structures and upgraded its regional defense plans, further reinforcing the Alliance’s overall defense posture[10].
Furthermore, military exercises along the eastern flank have been further synchronized, and the interoperability among multinational units has improved with better coordination and logistical performance[11]. In particular, Eastern and Northern European nations, such as Poland and the Baltic states, have been particularly vocal in advocating for a more permanent NATO troop presence to deter Russian aggression. The effectiveness of NATO’s response will largely depend on the leadership of its new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, and whether a robust, unified European defense strategy can be established.
The U.S. has always been the backbone of NATO’s defense structure, with 100,000 troops stationed in Europe and the capability to reinforce with an additional 200,000 personnel[12] rapidly. However, concerns over future U.S. commitment given Trump’s particularly turbulent first weeks in office raise questions about NATO’s effectiveness and even existence. If the U.S. were to reduce its involvement or eventually step out of NATO, Europe would face a severe capability gap. Ultimately, NATO’s deterrence strategy on its Eastern Flank will require political cohesion, increased defense spending, and a more integrated European military framework to counter Russian threats. Without a collective and resolute approach, the credibility of the Alliance could be called into question.
[1] Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. (2025, 4 March). U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine. U.S. Department Of State. https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/releases/2025/01/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine#:~:text=To%20date%2C%20we%20have%20provided,invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20in%202014
[2] Roth, A., & Holmes, O. (2025, 4 March). The US suspends all military aid to Ukraine in the wake of the Trump-Zelenskyy row. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/04/us-military-aid-ukraine-pause-trump-zelenskyy-updates
[3] Allison, G. (2025, 17 februari). Intelligence warns Russia ‘preparing for war with NATO’. UK Defence Journal. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/intelligence-warns-russia-preparing-for-war-with-nato/
[4] York, J. (2025, 19 februari). Baltic region prepares for war as Russia and US debate Ukraine’s fate. France24. https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250219-baltic-region-prepares-war-as-russia-us-debate-ukraine-fate
[5] New York Times. Europe’s New Reality: Trump May Not Quit NATO, but He’s Already Undercutting It. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/us/politics/trump-nato.html
[6] The Washington Post. (2025, 2 March). Uncertainty over Trump’s Plans for U.S. Troops in Europe Fuels Anxiety. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/03/02/us-troops-europe-trump-russia/
[7] Tarociński, J. (2023, 28 december). Military exercises on NATO’s north-eastern flank. Moving towards intensification and synchronisation. Centre For Eastern Studies. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-12-28/military-exercises-natos-north-eastern-flank-moving-towards
[8] Tarociński, J. (2023, 28 december). Military exercises on NATO’s north-eastern flank. Moving towards intensification and synchronisation. Centre For Eastern Studies. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-12-28/military-exercises-natos-north-eastern-flank-moving-towards
[9] Courtney, W. (2024, 1 augustus). NATO Bolsters Its Eastern Flank. RAND. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/08/nato-bolsters-its-eastern-flank.html
[10] House of Commons Library. (2022). NATO: Reinforcing its eastern flank. UK Parliament. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9450/
[11] Tarociński, J. (2023, 28 december). Military exercises on NATO’s north-eastern flank. Moving towards intensification and synchronisation. Centre For Eastern Studies. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-12-28/military-exercises-natos-north-eastern-flank-moving-towards
[12] Burilkov, A., & Wolff, G. B. (2025, 21 februari). Defending Europe without the US: first estimates of what is needed. Bruegel. https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us-first-estimates-what-needed